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In the longer term, the most pressing economic challenges for Badge Birthday the U.S. economy concern how to provide satisfactory living standards growth for the vast majority of people. Such growth requires two components: rapid overall productivity growth, and Agenda - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, a stabilization (or even reversal) of the Unique Letter Letter Cool Cover, large rise in income inequality that occurred in the three decades before the Great Recession, a rise in inequality that kept overall productivity growth from translating into living standards growth for most Americans. This report examines the short- and long-term economic and employment impacts of infrastructure investment. It examines three possible scenarios for infrastructure investment and estimates their likely impact on overall economic activity, productivity, and the number and types of jobs, depending on how the investments are financed. The data show that by far the biggest near-term boost to gross domestic product and jobs comes from financing the new investment through new federal government debt rather than a progressive increase in taxation, a regressive increase in taxation, or cuts to - 5+ Download Dcouments, government transfer programs. Our research also shows that this debt-financed impact is greater than that deriving from increases in Samples Letter, infrastructure investment that are driven not by direct public investments but through other actions, such as regulatory mandates. Key findings of the report are: Three potential infrastructure packages would yield from $18 billion to $250 billion annually for Research Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf infrastructure investment. Scenario one cancels all of the scheduled cuts stemming from the Badge Birthday Party, budget “sequester” (automatic, across-the-board cuts to discretionary spending called for in the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011), yielding an average of $30 billion annually over the next decade for infrastructure investments. (As of January 2014, a third of the scheduled sequester cuts were cancelled for the next two years only.) Scenario two implements a package of Dcouments, green investments that includes a large increase in investments in Party - Printable Id Badge, the energy efficiency of Template - 5+ Free In Pdf, residential and commercial buildings and Sample Cover For Business Faculty, upfront investments to construct a national “smart grid,” yielding $92 billion annually in Research Template Download Free In Pdf, infrastructure investments over the next decade.
Scenario three makes an ambitious investment in largely traditional infrastructure projects in transportation and utilities (particularly water treatment, distribution, and sewage systems) to nearly close the U.S. “infrastructure deficit” identified by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and yield $250 billion annually in infrastructure investment between now and Solutions Maintenance Engineer Sample Resume, 2020. In the near term, increases in infrastructure spending would significantly boost economic activity and employment. Under scenario one, a debt-financed $18 billion annual investment in infrastructure yields a $29 billion increase in GDP and 216,000 net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the increased levels then sustained over the next decade. Under scenario two, a debt-financed package of green investments totaling $92 billion annually boosts GDP by $147 billion and generates 1.1 million net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the increased levels then sustained over the next decade. Under scenario three, a debt-financed $250 billion annual investment boosts GDP by $400 billion and overall employment by Research Template - 5+, 3 million net new jobs by the end of the first year, with the increased levels then sustained over Such Free About To Make A Form Pdf the seven-year life of the investment. Any method of Research Agenda Free, making these infrastructure investments deficit-neutral reduces their impact on near-term activity and employment, but every method except cuts to government transfers still leaves a net positive impact. Over the long term, we can reliably predict only the Samples The Best Cool Cover, impact of infrastructure investments on the composition, not the overall level, of labor demand.
Because the impact of Research Agenda, infrastructure investments on the overall level of economic activity depends on Such Free the degree of productive slack in the economy, the stance of monetary policy, and how the investments are financed, it is Research Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments impossible to reliably forecast the long-term (further than five years out) effects of such investments on the overall level of economic activity. However, we can reliably project the impact of infrastructure investments on the composition of labor demand. Even if these investments crowd out other forms of spending and Best Maintenance Sample, do not affect the overall level of Template - 5+, activity and employment, it remains the case that composition of employment supported by additional spending on infrastructure would be different than that of the economic activity it potentially displaces. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately male, Latino, and skewed away from younger workers. Faculty - Shishita-World.com? Under scenario one, male employment accounts for Research Agenda Download Free Dcouments 77 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for Map Template - 6+ Free Download 80.4 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 74.1 percent, compared with an - 5+ Download economy-wide average of 50.2 percent of Charts | Proposalsheet.com, all jobs being held by men. Under scenario one Latino employment accounts for 15.4 percent of - 5+ Free, all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 16.2 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 14.3 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of 12.3 percent.
Under scenario one, employment of young adults (under 25 years old) accounts for 9.3 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for Solutions Sample 9.5 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 7.8 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of 13.2 percent. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately filled by workers without a four-year university degree. Under scenario one, workers with a bachelor’s degree or more education fill 23 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two college-educated employment accounts for 19.6 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for 21.4 percent, compared with an economy-wide average of Research Agenda In Pdf, 32.6 percent. Under all scenarios, jobs created are disproportionately middle- and/or high-wage. Under scenario one employment in Free Pdf Documents Download | Free, the bottom wage quintile accounts for Research Download Free Dcouments just 9.5 percent of all jobs created, while under scenario two it accounts for 9.4 percent of all jobs created, and under scenario three it accounts for Unique Cover The Best Cool 11.2 percent of all jobs created, compared with an economy-wide average of Template Download In Pdf, 18.9 percent. Infrastructure investments provide the potential to boost economy-wide productivity growth. Productivity growth has slowed significantly in the U.S. economy, beginning even before the onset of the Great Recession.
Our analysis conforms with a large and growing body of research persuasively arguing that infrastructure investments can boost even private-sector productivity growth. An ambitious effort to increase infrastructure investment by $250 billion annually over seven years would likely increase productivity growth by 0.3 percent annually—a boost more than half as large as the productivity acceleration in the U.S. economy between 1995 and 2005, one that was attributed to information and communications technology (ICT) advances. A productivity acceleration of Sample Cover Letter Faculty Position - Shishita-World.com, 0.3 percent would have measurable impacts on the estimated Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Research Free, Unemployment (NAIRU) and could allow macroeconomic policymakers to target significantly lower rates of unemployment. Extrapolating from the experience of the late 1990s, the NAIRU could be lowered by as much as 1 full percentage point by a sustained $250 billion annual increase in infrastructure investment. Cover For Business Position? This could mean that more than 1 million additional workers each year find employment. List of acronyms used in Research - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, this report. ASCE = American Society of Civil Engineers. GDP = gross domestic product. BCA = Budget Control Act.
ICT = information and communications technology. NAIRU = non-accelerating inflation rate of Cover Letter Samples Sample., unemployment. GCC = global climate change. GHG = greenhouse gases. EPRI = Electric Power Research Institute. PPM = parts per million. CPC = Congressional Progressive Caucus. NIPA = National Income and Product Accounts. BEA = Bureau of Economic Analysis. OMB = Office of Management and Budget.
EPI = Economic Policy Institute. ERM = Employment Requirements Matrix. BLS = Bureau of Labor Statistics. ARRA = American Recovery and In Pdf, Reinvestment Act. PERI = Political Economy Research Institute. CPS = Current Population Survey. CBO = Congressional Budget Office.
CEA = Council of Economic Advisers. MAEC = Moody’s Analytics’ Economy.com. CPS-ORG = Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group. QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. U.S. = United States. MPC = marginal propensity to consume.
ZLB = zero lower bound. VAR = vector auto-regression. HELP = health, education, leisure, hospitality, business and professional services. Scenarios for infrastructure investments. Simple political realism about the current state-of-play of American fiscal policy argues that large-scale infrastructure investments financed by the federal government are unlikely in coming years. However, economic analysis stands apart from current politics, and Samples The Best Letter Sample. Cool Cover, the economic case for boosting these investments is strong—and perhaps made even stronger by the growing threat of global climate change (GCC) caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Given these conflicting imperatives—political realism versus economic necessity—this report examines three different scenarios for Research Template Dcouments In Pdf infrastructure investments. The first looks at Cover The Best Letter, the implications for infrastructure investment if sharp cuts to federal discretionary spending called for in the - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, Budget Control Act of 2011 are cancelled.1 A 2013 budget deal signed into law does indeed cancel a portion (but just a portion) of the automatic sequester cuts for Unique Cover Letter Sample. Cool Cover the next two years. Given this, the paper examines what reversing these cuts completely would mean for boosting future infrastructure investments. The second scenario is more ambitious, and addresses the need for Template Free the United States to transition to an economy that emits fewer greenhouse gases. It packages a mix of investments in energy efficiency in the building sector with start-up investments in a national “smart grid.” The dollar figure for building efficiency investments is taken from a (now-famous) McKinsey report detailing the benefits of energy efficiency. For this scenario, we identify all building efficiency investments that were identified by McKinsey as having a net negative cost over the useful lives of the projects. For the smart-grid investments, we relied on assessments from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) for the upfront costs. After estimating these two components of this “green” package of energy, we checked to ensure that it would constitute a genuinely ambitious step toward mitigating GHG emissions, using work by Pacala and Socolow (2004). Pacala and Socolow (2004) introduced the concept of the “stabilization wedge” of GHG abatement.
They essentially look at Unique The Best Letter, the decline in Research Template Free In Pdf, carbon emissions needed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon at 450 parts per million (PPM) by 2054, a benchmark that they identify as the minimally ambitious goal for reducing the Ballistic, future costs imposed by climate change.2. They next divided the entire wedge between carbon emissions projected to occur under a “business as usual” (BAU) scenario and the emissions that would be allowed under a scenario that kept carbon at less than 450 parts per million into seven smaller “sub-wedges”. Next they identified a number of actions that would be sufficient to “fill” one of - 5+ Free, these smaller sub-wedges. So, for example, increasing fuel efficiency of 2 billion cars from 30 mpg to 60 mpg would constitute one sub-wedge, while boosting coal-fired power plant efficiency by 50 percent would constitute another sub-wedge. The package of green investments that constitutes our second infrastructure investment scenario would seem to be ambitious indeed—probably coming close to accounting for well over Best Solutions Engineer half of a stabilization sub-wedge, meaning that this package would be moving the U.S. Template - 5+ In Pdf? economy more than 10 percent of the way toward stabilizing GHG emissions at 450 PPM by itself. The building investments alone likely account for well over half of a stabilization wedge. Pacala and Socolow (2004) identify “cut[ing] carbon emissions by one-fourth in buildings and appliances” as a wedge. The McKinsey report estimates that the efficiency investments called for Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com in it would lead to almost exactly a one-quarter reduction in carbon emissions (23 percent), with more than 60 percent of this efficiency effect coming from the buildings channel alone.
Further, EPRI has identified a number of ways a smart grid could facilitate the achievement of other stabilization wedges. Agenda Template Free In Pdf? For example, they note that a smart grid could accommodate an increase in Secret Badge Birthday Party - Printable, electric and hybrid automobiles, which could help achieve the Research Agenda Free In Pdf, stabilization wedge possible through increased fuel efficiency of cars. And they note that household efficiencies would be much easier to achieve if energy savings stemming from them were more salient to households, and that this salience would be much easier to achieve through “smart metering” and other mechanisms that more closely tie household energy bills to Letter Samples The Best Cover, their consumption patterns. The last scenario examines an across-the-board increase in infrastructure spending concentrated in Research Agenda Template Free Dcouments In Pdf, traditional transportation and utilities investments. The magnitude of this spending—$250 billion annually—is chosen to close the “infrastructure deficit” identified by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) in recent reports about the Cover For Business Faculty Position, state of the nation’s infrastructure, including its most recent such report (ASCE 2013).
Scenario One: Undoing the discretionary spending caps imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act. In 2011, the U.S. Congress passed the Budget Control Act (BCA), which significantly reduced 10-year discretionary spending growth. Most of the American social insurance system (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Research - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, the Affordable Care Act) was unaffected. However, because the vast bulk of public investments (including infrastructure investments) are financed by the discretionary side of the federal budget, these spending caps—including the now-famous budget “sequester”—have steep consequences for Such A Cute Invoice Template! About A Form Pdf infrastructure spending. Figure A shows the share of total spending and public investment accounted for by each major budget category. The bars on the left of each two-bar set show the share of total federal spending accounted for by each of the three major spending categories.
Nondefense discretionary spending accounts for 21.0 percent of total federal spending, defense spending accounts for 20.4 percent, while mandatory spending (dominated by Research - 5+ Download In Pdf, the retirement security programs Medicare and Social Security as well as other health spending) accounts for 58.7 percent. The bars on the right of each two-bar set show the share of total federal public investment accounted for A Cute Invoice Free About To Make A Form by each of the three major spending categories. Nondefense discretionary spending, despite accounting for just a fifth of total spending, accounts for well over half of total public investment, 55.4 percent. Template - 5+ Free Dcouments? Defense spending accounts for 39.3 percent, while mandatory spending accounts for just over 5 percent of total public investment. What this figure demonstrates is that any policy change that leads to Unique Samples The Best Letter Sample. Cool Cover, large changes in the trajectory of discretionary spending will almost inevitably have large impacts on the future course of - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, public investment. Average share of Unique Cover Letter Cool Cover, total U.S. federal spending and total federal public investment, by Research - 5+ Download Dcouments, major budget category, 2010–2012. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.
The data underlying the figure. Source: Author's analysis of unpublished data from the Ballistic, Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. In estimating the impacts on economic activity and employment from undoing these spending caps, we assume that the composition of discretionary spending is essentially unchanged by shifts in the level of Template Download Free Dcouments, spending. It is theoretically true that cuts to infrastructure spending could be less or more steep than overall spending cuts, but this is nearly impossible to forecast. Further, the discretionary spending cuts currently constituting the policy baseline in the United States (i.e., the budget “sequester”) are across-the-board cuts to every category of discretionary spending, making the Sample For Business - Shishita-World.com, assumption that the composition of discretionary spending cuts will be unaffected by the level in fact consistent with current budget law. While economic analysis of the Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, nation’s infrastructure needs would drive public investment policy in a more rational world, it is Secret Agent - Spy Party - Printable important to emphasize what an uphill struggle it will be in coming years to overcome the political barriers to increasing public investment. Figure B shows the Agenda Template Download, implications for overall public investment if various 2014 budget proposals were passed. The budget proposals include, on the Democratic side, those from the White House (the Obama plan), the Senate Budget Committee (Murray plan), Democrats in the House of Representatives (House Democratic budget alternative), and Such A Cute Psd, A Form, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and, on the Republican side, that of the Research Template Download Free, House Committee on the Budget (Ryan plan).
It demonstrates clearly the downward pressure of austerity on public investment possibilities, with nearly all budget proposals coming from the Tree Map Template Pdf Documents | Free, U.S. Research Template Free Dcouments In Pdf? Congress, except the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) budget, calling for steep cuts in coming years. Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Resume? (See the Template - 5+ Download Free, text box titled “U.S. Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com? budget politics” for a broad overview of the differences between the budgets and an explanation of Research Agenda Template In Pdf, why there are so many competing budget proposals in U.S. politics today.) On the Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, one hand, these projections show the widespread acceptance of Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, large cuts in discretionary investment (and hence public investment) in Ballistic, coming years, which just highlights the political hurdles to increased infrastructure spending. On the other hand, these scenarios show just how much room there is in Research - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, coming years to boost infrastructure spending just by returning the public commitment to it to recent historic norms. Actual and implied public investment as a share of GDP under various 2013 U.S. Maintenance Resume? budget proposals, 2000–2023. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the Template Download In Pdf, figure. Source: Author's analysis based on Bivens (2013) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. The normal federal budget process in the United States essentially disintegrated between 2010 and 2013. Because Republicans controlled the House of Representatives while Democrats controlled the Senate, no agreement could be reached on annual budgets. Tree Map Template Download | Free? Instead, government spending levels were set with “continuing resolutions”—extensions of levels dictated by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, legislation passed to resolve the debt ceiling crisis of the summer of Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, 2011.
The BCA mandated steep cuts in domestic discretionary spending, spending that must be appropriated each year and which largely excludes the expensive social insurance programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the newly passed Affordable Care Act. This failure to Ballistic, agree on annual budgets also led to a proliferation of competing budget proposals. By custom, the budget committees of both the House of Representatives and the Senate are charged with submitting budget proposals, as is the president. Again, because the House budget committee was run by Republicans while the Senate budget committee was run by Democrats, there were large differences between the Agenda Dcouments In Pdf, respective budget committee proposals (shorthanded by the names of their respective chairs, with the Solutions Sample Resume, Republican House plan known as the Agenda Template Download, “Ryan plan” after Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and the Democratic Senate plan as the “Murray plan” after Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.)). - 6+ Free Download? The White House budget proposal (shorthanded as the “Obama plan” after President Barack Obama) was very close to the Murray plan. Besides these proposals, in recent years a number of Agenda - 5+ Download In Pdf, caucuses within the House and Senate also have been putting forward alternative budget plans. The most ambitious of these were the budget proposals forwarded by the Congressional Progressive Caucus (or CPC). The CPC budgets allowed for much larger deficits in Party, the early years of the budget window to finance infrastructure and other public investment programs aimed at spurring a full recovery from the Great Recession. In later years, the CPC called for significantly higher spending levels than other budget proposals, financed by higher (and more progressive) revenue levels.
Figure B in the main body of this report distills the key differences relevant to the analysis in this report—the large differences among various budgets in - 5+ Download Free, nondefense discretionary spending levels (the portion of the budget that generally finances the large majority of infrastructure spending). Figure C demonstrates that “core” infrastructure spending likely constitutes a large share of overall public investment. The Figure examines the portion of public investment classified as structures and Best Sample, does not cover equipment , as only data on structures are broken down in Agenda Template, detail that allows us to differentiate core infrastructure investment from other forms of public investment. What the figure shows is that most of what is classified as public investment in official data sources on public investment in structures is indeed infrastructure spending (highways, transportation projects, water and sewer projects, utilities, etc.). “Core” infrastructure investment and health and education investment in the United States, as a share of GDP, 1947–2011. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: Core infrastructure investment includes highway, transportation, sewer, and water-treatment investments.
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Secret Birthday - Printable Id Badge, Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 1.1.5, 5.8.5a, and 5.8.5b) Copy the code below to Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments, embed this chart on your website. A similar breakdown between core infrastructure and other public investments for Secret - Spy Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge the equipment component of public investments is not available. It seems safe to assume, however, that a large share of the public investment in equipment must also be devoted to core infrastructure projects as well. Airports, water treatment plants, and rail systems, for example, have investment needs that go far beyond the Research Agenda Dcouments In Pdf, buildings sitting on them.
The message is clear: Unless the proposed cuts in discretionary spending in coming years are done with surgical precision to avoid cutting infrastructure investments, they will deeply impact annual investments. And it should be noted that the budget “sequester” explicitly disallows such discrimination among different discretionary spending priorities and demands across-the-board cuts. In order to assess the economic and employment impact of the extra infrastructure investment made possible by undoing the BCA spending caps, we need to know just what kinds of Best Solutions Engineer Resume, infrastructure investments are currently financed by the federal government. First, we translate proposed cuts in discretionary spending into cuts in overall public investments, using the Research Agenda - 5+, same data sources we used to Unique Cover Letter Letter Sample. Cool, construct Figure A (data sources which show the share of each type of federal government spending that is public investment instead of public consumption). These data (available upon request) are non-public data supplied by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to EPI. The main contribution of the Agenda Template - 5+ Free, data is to A Cute Invoice Free About To Make A Form Pdf, identify how many dollars in Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, each detailed budget function (of which there are over 6,000) are dedicated to Tree Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents | Free, investment, as opposed to current consumption. Using these data we can estimate the share of these cuts to public investment that will take the form of cuts to Template - 5+ In Pdf, infrastructure spending specifically. We do this by using data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, allocate the cuts to infrastructure spending (simply based on our definition that infrastructure investments cover highway, transportation, sewer and water-treatment industries) to the various industries in our input-output model. Table 1 presents these allocations as gains: how much additional infrastructure spending could flow into each of these industries if these proposed cuts were reversed. Overall it shows that a reversal of the proposed cuts would yield an average of Template Free, $18 billion annually over the next decade for infrastructure investments. Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario one.
Note: Overall total may not sum due to Best Solutions Of Mechanical Engineer Resume, rounding. Annual gains would take place over the next decade. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix and analysis of infrastructure investments made possible through ending budget sequester of the Budget Control Act of 2011. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Unsurprisingly, the Research Template - 5+ Free In Pdf, cuts—and thus gains—are heavily concentrated in the construction sector, as federally financed infrastructure projects are heavily concentrated in road building and other forms of Tree Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents Download, transit construction. Federally financed infrastructure projects also lean heavily toward the Agenda - 5+ Download, manufacturing sector, with transportation equipment (aerospace, ships and Unique Letter Samples, boats, and motor vehicles manufacturing) dominating. The high shares of aerospace and - 5+ Download, ship building could be driven in part by the fact that defense spending accounts for a non-trivial share of total public investment. As defense spending is Ballistic also cut by the provisions of the Agenda Template - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, BCA, one could in Solutions Sample Resume, theory include these in our overall measures.
However, for the purposes of this examination we exclude the aerospace and ship-building sectors, as they are probably less associated with traditional infrastructure projects. Scenario Two: Combining investments in In Pdf, building energy efficiency and the smart grid for Tree Pdf Documents | Free carbon mitigation. A second, more ambitious policy proposal combines large increases in Research - 5+, infrastructure spending to improve the energy efficiency of Cover Position - Shishita-World.com, buildings, along with start-up investments for a national “smart grid.” The impetus for examining this scenario is to emphasize that the cost of out-of-date infrastructure is likely rising fast given the enormous threat posed by global climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions. For example, a key part of Research Agenda Template Download Dcouments In Pdf, American infrastructure is simply buildings—both residential and commercial, private and publicly owned. We now know that inefficiency of buildings is a huge contributor to excess carbon emissions, and that investments in energy-efficient buildings represent an enormous low-cost opportunity to reduce GHG emissions. While publicly owned buildings are the obvious first place to start an infrastructure investment effort, it should be noted that the economics of GHG emissions imply that a substantial public investment even in Birthday Party, boosting efficiency of privately owned buildings would yield high economic returns. Without externalities, inefficient buildings represent a cost only to their owners, and the case for including improvements to these inefficient buildings in an infrastructure effort is Research Download Dcouments In Pdf weak.
But with unpriced externalities, inefficient buildings—even those privately owned—inflict a cost on everybody, and the case for using public resources to improve them is much stronger. McKinsey and Unique Cover The Best Cool Cover, Company (2009) have famously identified more than $500 billion in energy efficiency opportunities that would have negative net economic cost and Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, offer present-value returns of nearly 100 percent over their useful lives. Pacala and Socolow (2004) have identified improving energy efficiency of buildings as a large enough opportunity to by itself account for more than 10 percent of the total possibility for moving carbon emissions to The Best Letter Sample. Cool, an economically sustainable level. Research Template Free Dcouments? Rogers (2007) has noted that many market failures even besides the unpriced externality of GHG emissions exist in markets for energy efficiency investments, and that these market failures argue for a key public role in fostering this investment. All of this argues strongly that investing in energy efficiency of buildings would be an extraordinarily high-return activity. Utilities, particularly energy-providing utilities, are part of the classic definition of infrastructure. The utility system of the United States is in dire need of upgrade along numerous fronts: capacity, safety, reliability, and cost (EPRI 2011). Further, the need to foster a smooth transition to an economy where production is less carbon-intensive in the future will require a much different, and much better, national system of electrical power generation. Secret Agent Badge - Spy Birthday - Printable? For example, the benefits of putting a price on Research Template Free carbon emissions will only come to pass if electricity consumers reliably see a price signal from changes in electricity use. Today’s grid provides such household-level signals with considerable noise. A national “smart grid” could help provide such signals as well as improve electricity transmission along other margins (reliability, security, etc.).
The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI 2011) has undertaken a rigorous estimate of the costs and benefits of Agent - Spy, investing in a state-of-the-art smart grid for the United States. It finds that an investment (over 20 years) of $340 billion to $475 billion to establish a nationwide smart grid would yield a benefit/cost ratio (in present-value terms) of between 2.8 to 6.0. Research Agenda Dcouments? Part of this benefit includes the enabling role that a smart grid would play in implementing some of the stabilization “wedges” identified by Pacala and Tree - 6+ Pdf Documents Download, Socolow (2004). For example, EPRI demonstrates that a key benefit of Template Download Free Dcouments, a state-of-the-art smart grid would be the Sample Cover Letter For Business Position, capacity to provide charging stations for electrical vehicles. The switch from Agenda Template - 5+ Free Dcouments, carbon-fuel-based vehicles to electric vehicles accounts for a stabilization wedge by itself in the Pacala and Socolow analysis. The portfolio of infrastructure investments packaged in this second scenario is obviously politically ambitious for the present moment in Best Solutions Sample Resume, the United States.
However, it does serve as a useful reminder that potentially high-return investments are numerous, in large part because of the relative decline in public investment in Template - 5+, recent decades (a decline reversed for Sample Faculty - Shishita-World.com a few years by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)). Further, the Agenda - 5+ Free, economic returns to “green” investments in particular are likely rising quickly, as the costs of global climate change begin to manifest, and while policy initiatives aiming to Secret Agent Badge Party, put a price on GHG emissions have so far failed. A key benefit of Research Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, pricing GHG emissions is to make investments in their mitigation profitable, and hence likely to be undertaken by private actors. Best Maintenance Resume? But the failure to put a price on Template Download Dcouments these emissions in the United States does not have to mean that no action is taken on Sample Cover Position this front. Instead, public investments, including infrastructure investments, can be begun even before price signals to drive private investments begin.
The model inputs for investments in the smart grid were helped greatly by Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, two previous reports. The first, a 2011 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), provided the overall cost, as well as providing a breakdown of Free Pdf Documents, this cost between transmission and distribution. Further, a report by Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) for the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) provides an estimate of the industrial inputs needed for investments to update the smart grid. We use the EPRI (2011) number for Download Dcouments overall investment effort needed along with the PERI data on the allocation of investment flows into the industries in Unique Cover Samples The Best Sample. Cover, our model. This package of green investments—a large increase in efficiency investments in the residential and Template - 5+ Free Dcouments, commercial building sectors, along with upfront investments to construct a national smart grid—would lead to $92 billion annually in infrastructure investments over the next decade. In the | Proposalsheet.com, case of the smart grid, the industrial allocation of these investments is described in Table 2 . Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario two. Note: Annual gains shown would take place over the next decade. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix; EPRI (2011); and Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) Copy the code below to Agenda Template Download Dcouments, embed this chart on | Proposalsheet.com your website. Again, given the emphasis on improving the efficiency of buildings, this package of infrastructure spending predictably leans heavily toward construction. However, there are also direct inflows into a number of Research Download, manufacturing and utility industries.
Scenario Three: An ambitious across-the-board increase in Free Download, infrastructure spending. Our last scenario looks at a truly ambitious across-the-board increase in infrastructure spending, on Template Free a scale sufficient, for example, to close the accumulated “infrastructure deficit” identified by experts such as the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). This scenario was recommended, for example, by Charts | Proposalsheet.com, the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) in its budget proposals in recent years. ASCE issues an annual “report card” on the nation’s infrastructure, and in Agenda, recent years it has given the Such A Cute To Make A Form Pdf, U.S. Research Agenda - 5+ Free? investment effort a failing grade (ASCE 2013). It identifies the needed investment to erase the Sample Letter For Business Faculty - Shishita-World.com, nation’s substantial “infrastructure deficit” between now and 2020 as $3.6 trillion. Further, it estimates that only about half of this investment amount is likely to be provided under the current trajectory of Research Agenda Download Free Dcouments, public investment. Given this, for Secret Party - Printable Id Badge our third scenario we target $250 billion in new infrastructure spending per year until 2020, an amount that would close the remaining half of the needed investments over that time.
Because transportation systems, water distribution, water treatment, and Research - 5+ Download Free, sewage systems figure prominently in the ASCE report’s documentation of the nation’s infrastructure deficit, we allocate roughly three-quarters of the entire $250 billion additional investments to these sectors (which includes construction activities). The remainder is allocated to other utility sectors and to industries associated with efforts needed to expand high-speed Internet access throughout the country. The specific receiving industries for infrastructure spending under the third scenario were picked to correspond with these priorities. Agent Birthday - Printable? Table 3 shows the receiving industries, identified by BLS industry code. Annual industry spending (model inputs) under scenario three.
Note: Annual gains shown would take place between 2014 and 2020. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix and ASCE (2013) Copy the - 5+ Download In Pdf, code below to embed this chart on - 6+ Free Download your website. Near-term effects of Research Agenda Free Dcouments In Pdf, infrastructure spending. In terms of projecting the near-term, net employment impacts of increased infrastructure spending under the scenarios presented in the previous sections, a number of pieces of Tree Pdf Documents Download, economic context must be specified. Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf? First, how much economic slack exists—particularly in Unique, labor markets. Second, and related but not identical to the question of economic slack, how will monetary policy authorities likely respond to Agenda Template Dcouments, a macroeconomically significant increase in infrastructure investments? Third, how will the infrastructure investments be financed? Through public debt? Through increased revenues or user fees?
Or through private borrowing or retained earnings? In the case of near-term increases in Secret Agent Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, infrastructure investments in Research Template - 5+ Free, the U.S. economy, the answers to the first two of Free | Free, these questions are unfortunately quite simple: There is a very large amount of overall economic slack in Agenda - 5+ Dcouments, the U.S. economy today, and monetary policymakers are highly unlikely to try to neutralize demand increases stemming from Tree Pdf Documents | Free, near-term infrastructure investments. These answers simply reflect that the Research Template Download Dcouments, United States is very far from having fully recovered from the Agent Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, Great Recession of 2008–2009. Figure D shows the amount of slack in two ways, the ratio of actual to potential gross domestic product (GDP) and the share of prime-age adults (25–54) who are employed.3 During the Great Recession (shaded in Research - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, grey), both of Cover Letter For Business Faculty, these measures declined precipitously. Research Template In Pdf? Since the - Spy Birthday - Printable, official end of the Great Recession, in contrast, the reversal has been quite slow—and over the past year steady progress in Research Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, improving each has nearly stopped completely. Solutions Of Mechanical? This argues strongly that the Agenda Download Free Dcouments, U.S. economy has large amounts of Secret Agent Id Badge, productive slack. Two measures of economic slack : Ratio of actual to potential GDP, and employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) for workers age 25–54, 2000–2013. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.
Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Table 1.1.6), Congressional Budget Office (2012), and Current Population Survey (CPS) public data series. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Further, the Federal Reserve has continually committed to Research Agenda Download Free In Pdf, keeping monetary policy extraordinarily accommodative in coming years and has indeed noted that increased fiscal stimulus (like an increase in infrastructure spending) would be useful for macroeconomic stabilization (see, for Solutions Engineer Sample Resume example, Yellen (2013). Given this degree of economic slack and promise of monetary policy accommodation, it seems that the most natural assumption for how a near-term increase in infrastructure investments would be financed is simply through new federal government debt. This would allow the investments to have the largest impact on near-term economic activity and employment. However, we also calculate near-term impacts stemming from infrastructure investments that are financed by a progressive increase in taxation, a regressive increase in taxation, and cuts to government transfer programs. Research Agenda Template - 5+ Free Dcouments? Lastly, we discuss the likely macroeconomic impact of increases in infrastructure investment that are driven not by Cover Letter Position - Shishita-World.com, direct public investments, but through other actions, such as regulatory mandates. It should be noted that most of the Research Dcouments In Pdf, analysis in this section will rely on Unique Samples The Best Cool a set of macroeconomic “multipliers” culled from various data sources.
While such multipliers were considered slightly controversial as recently as the immediate aftermath of the Great Recession, there has been a clear and decisive intellectual shift in recent years in Template - 5+ Free In Pdf, favor of the Map Template - 6+ Free Pdf Documents, view that public spending can indeed help stabilize an economy with large amounts of productive slack when the monetary authority is accommodative (see the appendix for Template - 5+ Dcouments a long discussion of the debate over Such Free Psd, About A Form multipliers and discretionary fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool). Table 4 reproduces a table from Bivens (2011), showing multipliers for various fiscal policy changes from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics Economy.com (MAEC). We will use these and the method described in Bivens (2011) to construct our estimates of economic activity and employment growth spurred by Template Download Free In Pdf, increases in infrastructure investment of Cover Letter The Best Cool, various kinds. In brief, this method uses estimates of the total “fiscal impulse” created by - 5+ Download Free, a policy change (the increase in infrastructure investment, in this case) and Best Solutions Engineer Resume, then applies macroeconomic multipliers from various sources to measure the impact of the Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, fiscal impulse on economic output (GDP). Next, we translate the incremental gain or loss in GDP into the number of Secret Badge - Printable, jobs supported by Agenda - 5+ Free, this increased activity. Comparisons of Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, estimated macroeconomic multipliers.
Source: Congressional Budget Office (2012), Zandi (2011), and the Council of Economic Advisers (2011) Copy the code below to embed this chart on Research Agenda Download Free Dcouments In Pdf your website. General observations about these rankings of multipliers are worth noting. First, infrastructure investments have some of the | Proposalsheet.com, highest multipliers in the table. Partly this stems from the fact that, compared with taxes and even transfer payments, there is no leakage that occurs from money being saved by households. By definition, infrastructure spending is spending, not savings. Further, infrastructure investments tend to be less import-intensive than overall spending, so there is Agenda Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf less scope for leakages from imports as well. Second, multipliers on transfer payments (i.e., food stamps, unemployment insurance, and income support payments) rival or even exceed those from infrastructure investments, so paying for stepped-up public investments in Secret Agent Badge - Spy Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, infrastructure by cutting government transfers is likely to be a poor strategy for boosting near-term economic activity and employment.
Third, progressive tax cuts (i.e., providing the Research - 5+, bulk of the increase in Free About To Make Pdf, after-tax income growth to households in the low and moderate end of the income distribution) have higher multipliers than regressive tax cuts, and business tax cuts have the lowest multipliers of all. This means that if one is Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf determined to pay for increased public investment in infrastructure with tax increases, raising revenue progressively by Charts, taxing high-income households and businesses will provide the Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, smallest countervailing drag on near-term activity and employment. Lastly, it should be noted that there has been some recent marking down of Solutions Engineer Sample Resume, multipliers on infrastructure investments in CBO reports. However, the rationale for this marking down is clearly not an assessment of the economic effectiveness of infrastructure investment in spurring activity and employment. Instead, it reflects the political judgment of CBO that grants to state and local governments to finance infrastructure investments may result in these governments just substituting the federal finance for Research - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf their own revenue without increasing overall infrastructure spending. If this is true, this argues for a change in Secret Badge, design in infrastructure grants to subnational governments (say, by including maintenance-of-effort requirements in these grants), not an abandonment of Research Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, infrastructure spending as a method of macroeconomic stabilization. Generally, such multipliers (and the job estimates of net new employment generated by them) are only significant and relevant during times of elevated unemployment. Sample Faculty Position? During other times, countervailing forces—both the monetary authority’s response as well as potential “crowding out” from higher interest rates—will neutralize much of the Research Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, increased activity spurred by the infrastructure spending. Tree Pdf Documents Download | Free? However, given that unemployment rates have been historically high for years and threaten to be high for Template Free Dcouments years to come, these types of Letter Sample. Cool, job estimates will likely be useful to inform policy debates for quite some time. These estimates of Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, economic activity and employment creation stemming from infrastructure spending financed by federal government debt need no further steps.
For spending financed by either tax increases or cuts in For Business, government transfers, we can just apply “reverse multipliers” to obtain the countervailing impact on activity and jobs. It gets a bit trickier to assess any countervailing impact on economic activity and jobs stemming from infrastructure spending increases financed by Research Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, private actors that are driven by, for example, regulatory change. But one could imagine a large increase in Download | Free, infrastructure spending driven by mandates on efficiency levels on Agenda Template Free Dcouments new (or even existing) buildings or in utility transmission and Invoice Template! Psd,, generation (say, with a clean energy standard applied to all existing electrical utilities). Bivens (2012c) makes the case that increases in Template In Pdf, private-sector investments driven by regulatory changes will, in today’s economy characterized by Sample Cover - Shishita-World.com, a large output gap, largely go through with very little countervailing effects in Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments, the form of reduced spending elsewhere in the economy. This is due to a number of factors. For one, there remains a huge excess of desired savings over planned investment, epitomized by the large (and growing) stash of liquid assets piling up on corporate-sector balance sheets. Unless the regulatory changes were extensive enough that they could not be easily financed (on net) from this excess accumulation of liquid assets, it is very hard to see reasons why the resulting investments should drive up interest rates and crowd out other corporate investments or private consumption. Further, historically high profit margins (themselves a function of an economy too slack to provide workers with the Cover For Business Faculty Position, bargaining power necessary to Research Agenda Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, generate wage growth in line with productivity) will act as a strong buffer against increased spending translating into higher prices that can choke off demand through this channel.
Producers have traditionally allowed profit margins to fall to keep the Tree - 6+ Download | Free, full amount of aggregate demand increases from translating into higher prices (and hence choking off demand for their output). Bivens (2012c) estimates that as other nonlabor costs rise (say, costs imposed by Research Template - 5+ Free Dcouments, regulatory burdens), unit profits tend to buffer about 20 percent of the increase on average in recent decades. However, given that today’s profit margins are far above historic averages, one imagines this buffer has become significantly thicker. Lastly, many researchers have noted that inflation arising from Best Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample Resume, increased spending would actually be helpful in spurring economic recovery, and could well lead to faster growth in other sectors of the economy, given the very extraordinary circumstances in the current U.S. economy. A longstanding macroeconomic argument maintains that during normal economic times a higher price level will reduce the real purchasing power of fixed nominal wealth and hence reduce aggregate demand. However, another longstanding argument maintains that a higher price level also decreases the real burden of debt, not just wealth, and if the propensity to consume out of current debt is higher than the propensity to consume out of current wealth, then a higher price level, by effectively redistributing purchasing power from lenders to debtors, can actually raise aggregate demand. - 5+? Eggerston and Krugman (2012) argue that this “debt-deflation” effect is much more likely to occur in economies that have a large overhang of private debt, like the Sample Cover Position, U.S. economy today. So, even if regulatory mandates that led to increased infrastructure spending somehow pushed up domestic prices in the U.S. economy, it is highly unlikely that this would reduce spending growth in other sectors of the Research Agenda Template Free In Pdf, economy.
With all of these considerations in Such A Cute Invoice Template! Psd, To Make, mind, tables 5, 6, and 7 lay out the near-term impacts from an increase in Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, infrastructure spending in each of the different financing options, for each of the three infrastructure investment scenarios. Near-term impacts on Map Template - 6+ activity and employment from Scenario One. Scenario One, again, tries to project the boost to infrastructure investment that would result from Download Free, undoing caps to discretionary spending imposed by the Budget Control Act of Such A Cute Invoice Free A Form, 2011. Our estimate (detailed in the previous section on our investment scenarios) is Agenda that over Solutions Maintenance Sample the next 10 years reversing these discretionary caps would free up roughly $18 billion annually for (non-defense) infrastructure investment. The first column of Table 5 reports the near-term impact on GDP and employment stemming from this $18 billion boost in federally financed infrastructure investment if it is debt-financed. It uses multipliers based on Free Dcouments data from the A Cute Invoice Free Psd, About Pdf, CBO, CEA, and MAEC, which are summarized in Table 4. Research Agenda Dcouments? For infrastructure spending we use a multiplier of 1.6—firmly in the middle range of estimated multipliers for this type of spending. Such A Cute Template! Free About To Make Pdf? This implies that the $18 billion (annual) increase in - 5+ Free In Pdf, infrastructure spending yields $29 billion in additional GDP (primarily by the end of the first year, with the new increased level essentially sustained over the course of the Best Engineer Resume, investment period). Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario One. Note: Multipliers are based on Research Template In Pdf evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012). Specifically, the multiplier for infrastructure investments is 1.6, the muliplier for progressive tax increases is (-) 0.9, the multiplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is 1.6, and following Bivens (2012), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by regulatory mandates are crowded out.
For employment impacts, we assume each percentage point addition to Unique Letter Samples Letter, GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Research Agenda Template - 5+ Free, Bivens (2012) Congressional Budget Office (2013), Council of Economic Advisors and Moody's Analytics Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Unfortunately, this multiplier on Sample For Business Faculty Position - Shishita-World.com infrastructure spending is unable to capture differences in economic activity spurred depending on Research Template - 5+ Download In Pdf the type of spending. The reason for this is that macroeconometric estimates of multipliers just are not that precise. The key barrier to estimating them is that there is very little truly exogenous variation in such spending. | Proposalsheet.com? What would be needed for clean empirical identification of the - 5+ Download Free, effect of different types of experiments would be random assignment of different infrastructure projects across geographic spaces and Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance, economic contexts, along with a commitment from other macroeconomic policymakers (particularly the Free Dcouments, Federal Reserve) that no action would be taken to boost or restrain economic activity across these experiments.
This obviously cannot (and should not) happen. Further, the Charts, multiplier on Research Download Free Dcouments In Pdf economic activity in times when the Federal Reserve is not trying to counteract any stimulus from spending (as in the current U.S. economy) is Charts | Proposalsheet.com essentially a function of three parameters: the Research Agenda Template - 5+ Free In Pdf, marginal propensity to spend income generated by the spending, the marginal effective tax rate on income flows generated by the spending, and the import content of demand generated by the spending. As each of these parameters rise, the estimated multiplier falls. Any kind of Best Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance, direct government spending scores well on the first count; by definition the first round of Research Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments, spending is Secret Agent Badge - Spy - Printable entirely not saved. This contrasts strongly with tax cuts. The marginal effective tax rate on income generated by any kind of Download Free, direct spending is just not going to vary that much across infrastructure projects, as there is just not that much variation in income and payroll tax rates across the bottom 90 percent of the income distribution. This leaves the import content of final demand generated by infrastructure spending. And again, because the U.S. economy is Map Template - 6+ Free Pdf Documents | Free quite closed relative to many of Research Agenda - 5+ In Pdf, its international peers, it is hard to imagine very large differences in A Cute Template! Psd, About To Make Pdf, the import content of infrastructure spending varying enough across types of infrastructure projects to make a large difference in the final amount of (domestic) economic activity spurred by the spending.
To estimate the employment impacts stemming from increased economic activity, we start with the evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) estimating each 1 percent of generic GDP increase in economic activity will generate 1.2 million additional jobs. So, the $29 billion in additional annual spending spurred by infrastructure investment leads to 216,000 net new jobs created (primarily by the end of the Download Free In Pdf, first year, with the new increased level essentially sustained over the course of the investment period). Columns (2) through (4) then examine the net impact of financing this increase in spending with progressive revenue increases, regressive revenue increases, and cuts to government transfer payments, each in an amount equal to the $30 billion boost to infrastructure spending. For each, we use multipliers based on the evidence examined in Bivens (2011). For regressive tax increases (by which we mean revenue raised disproportionately from lower and moderate-income taxpayers), we average the multipliers estimated for across-the-board payroll tax cuts and Badge Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, a refundable tax credit, yielding a multiplier of 0.9.
For progressive tax increases (revenue raised disproportionately from higher-income taxpayers), we average the multipliers that were estimated based on the overall extension of the Research Agenda Template In Pdf, 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and a corporate tax cut (specifically, allowing accelerated depreciation of plant and equipment for tax purposes), yielding a multiplier of 0.3. Finally, for Letter Position - Shishita-World.com government transfers, we average the Agenda - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, multipliers for food stamps (officially the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP), unemployment insurance, and one-time lump-sum payments to retirees, yielding a multiplier of 1.6. The bottom line is simple enough: Any offset to the impact of infrastructure spending on the federal budget deficit blunts the Best Engineer Sample Resume, GDP and employment impact of - 5+, such spending. But, the biggest drag stems from Pdf Documents Download | Free, trying to pay for infrastructure spending by cutting government transfers, which essentially neutralizes any near-term boost to activity or employment. Financing the boost to infrastructure investment through a progressive increase in taxes provides the smallest countervailing drag on activity and Research Agenda Template - 5+ Free, employment, with GDP increasing by $22.5 billion and Secret Badge, employment rising by 169,000 jobs even after the financing drag is factored in. The middle column in the table shows that financing the infrastructure spending boost through a regressive increase in taxes still results in a $12.6 billion boost to GDP and an employment boost of 94,500, but regressive tax increases do neutralize more than half of the near-term stimulus.
In the last column, we draw on the analysis of Agenda Free Dcouments, Bivens (2012c) to get a less-precise estimate of the impact of implicitly financing the increase in Such Template! About, infrastructure investment through regulatory mandates. Bivens (2012c) examined the likely macroeconomic impact of a major environmental regulation that would have forced significant investment by owners of power plants to restrict emissions of Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, toxic pollutants. It surveyed the literature on how an exogenous increase in privately funded investment was likely to crowd out other private spending during conditions that currently hold in the U.S. economy. It found that because such investment is Unique Letter Samples Letter Sample. Cool Cover very unlikely to place appreciable upward pressure on Agenda Dcouments In Pdf economy-wide interest rates, it was unlikely that it could be substantially “crowded out” by reduced spending elsewhere. Bivens (2012c) provides a high-end estimate that 20 percent of economic activity and employment generated by The Best Sample. Cool Cover, the regulatory mandate would be neutralized through reduced spending elsewhere in the economy. Column (5) hence reflects this 20 percent crowding out Research Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments if this amount of infrastructure investment were financed by regulatory mandates on Cover private-sector actors rather than directly financed by the federal government. Near-term impacts on activity and - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, employment from Scenario Two. Table 6 generates the same numbers for the more ambitious second scenario of Unique Cover Samples The Best Cool, infrastructure investment.
The starting amount of annual spending increases is $92 billion—more than triple the amount in Scenario One. Column (1) indicates that the Research - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, resulting GDP boost if this amount of spending were financed by an increase in federal debt is $147 billion, with 1.1 million jobs generated (primarily by the end of the first year, with the new increased level essentially sustained over the course of the investment period). Employment and Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario Two. Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012c). Specifically, the Research Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, multiplier for infrastructure investment is 1.6, the Samples Sample. Cool Cover, muliplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.9, the multiplier for progressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for transfers is 1.6, and following Bivens (2012c), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by regulatory mandates are crowded out. For employment impacts, we assume each percentage-point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to the economy. The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios and Research Template Download Free, are annual gains taking place over the next decade as described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2012); Electric Power Research Institute (2011); and Pollin, Heintz, and Garrett-Peltier (2009) Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Column (2) indicates that financing this increase in infrastructure investment with progressive revenue sources leads to Invoice Free Psd, About To Make A Form Pdf, a net increase in GDP of $115 billion, with employment increased by 862,500. Column (3) indicates that financing this increase in Template Free Dcouments, infrastructure investment with regressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents | Free, GDP of $64 billion with employment increased by 483,000.
Column (4) confirms that financing infrastructure investments with cuts to government transfers completely neutralizes any near-term boost to Research Template - 5+ Download Free, activity or employment. Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com? Column (5) again applies the (high-end) 20 percent crowd-out estimate from Bivens (2012c) to the gross increase in activity and employment spurred by the increase in infrastructure investment if it is financed through regulatory mandates rather than through direct public spending. Under this financing option, GDP would increase by nearly $129 billion, producing 966,000 jobs. Near-term impacts on activity and employment from Scenario Three. Table 7 generates the same numbers for the much more ambitious third scenario of infrastructure investment. Research Agenda - 5+ Download Free In Pdf? The starting amount of annual spending increases is $250 billion—more than eight times the amount in scenario one. Engineer Sample? Column (1) indicates that the resulting GDP boost if this amount of spending were financed by an increase in federal debt is $400 billion, with 3 million jobs generated (by the end of the first year, with the level essentially sustained over the course of the investment period). Employment and GDP impacts of U.S. infrastructure investment under various financing options, Scenario Three.
Note: Multipliers are based on evidence reviewed in Bivens (2011) and Bivens (2012c). Specifically, the multiplier for infrastructure investments is 1.6, the muliplier for regressive tax increases is (-)0.9, the multiplier for progressive tax increases is (-)0.35, the multiplier for Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf transfers is 1.6, and Secret Agent Badge - Spy Birthday Party - Printable, following Bivens (2012c), 20 percent of the stimulative effect of investments driven by regulatory mandates are crowded out. For employment impacts, we assume each percentage-point addition to GDP adds 1.2 million jobs to Agenda Free Dcouments In Pdf, the economy. Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com? The total spending figures are based on the infrastructure investment scenarios and are annual gains taking place between 2014 and 2020 as described in the text. Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Research Download Dcouments, Labor Statistics Employment Requirements Matrix industry codes receiving spending flows to finance across-the-board increase in traditional infrastructure to close infrastructure deficit identifed by ASCE (2013) Copy the Charts, code below to embed this chart on your website. Column (2) indicates that financing this increase in Research Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments, infrastructure investment with progressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in GDP of $313 billion, with employment increased by Unique Cover Letter Letter Sample., over 2.3 million. Column (3) indicates that financing this increase in infrastructure investment with regressive revenue sources leads to a net increase in GDP of $175 billion with employment increased by 1.3 million.
Column (4) confirms that financing infrastructure investments with cuts to Agenda Dcouments, government transfers completely neutralizes any near-term boost to Sample Letter For Business Faculty Position, activity or employment. Column (5) again applies the (high-end) 20 percent crowd-out estimate from Template - 5+ In Pdf, Bivens (2012c) to the gross increase in activity and employment spurred by Ballistic Charts, the increase in - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, infrastructure investment if it is financed through regulatory mandates rather than through direct public spending. Under the regulatory mandates option, GDP increases by $350 billion, and Template! Psd, About, employment increases by 2.6 million. Caveats about near-term employment impacts: labor intensity of infrastructure investment. We cautioned above that these estimates of the Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments, near-term boost provided by infrastructure investment are highly context-dependent. Solutions Of Mechanical Engineer Sample? So, these estimates would be totally uninformative about a program of infrastructure investments that, say, began in 2020, a year in which the overall state of the Research Agenda - 5+ Free, economy is Birthday Party impossible to predict with any certainty. Agenda Template - 5+ Download In Pdf? We would also caution that these boosts to GDP and employment are not cumulative. Under an infrastructure investment program that boosts this spending by, say, $30 billion annually for 10 years, these boosts to GDP and employment would manifest in the first year (roughly, some of the increase could take a bit longer to manifest), but would not continue to rise thereafter. These estimates to the near-term boost to GDP and Cover For Business Position, employment are increases in the level , not the growth rate , of these variables. This is because spurring increases in the growth of GDP or employment from Research Template - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, public investment would require a steadily increasing contribution from year to year. Cover Letter? So, once policymakers assign, say, $500 billion in total public investment in 2014, the Research Agenda Template Download Free, only way public investment can boost the level of Unique Letter Samples, GDP in Research Agenda Template Download Dcouments, 2015 is to increase that year’s public investment flow.
Making the same public investment effort each year for a number of years only increases the Cover Letter Letter Cover, level of GDP in Template - 5+ Download Free, the initial year, and Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance Sample Resume, then provides no further boost thereafter. A further caution is that there is one possible way that these macroeconomic estimates of the employment impacts of infrastructure investments could be slightly biased: if the labor intensity of such investments differed markedly from the economy-wide labor intensity of production that these estimates are implicitly based on. In Figure E , we quickly check if such issues are severely biasing our results by comparing the average labor intensity (jobs created directly, and overall, including through supplier effects) of our three scenarios of infrastructure investments with overall measures of labor intensity. We find that infrastructure investments are indeed less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages; each $1 million in infrastructure spending generates roughly 20–25 percent fewer jobs than each $1 million in general economic output. Direct and total jobs supported by Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, $1 million in final demand, economy-wide average and under three infrastructure investment scenarios. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.
The data underlying the figure. Note: This chart shows the relative labor intensity of infrastructure investment. Source: Author’s analysis of data from Employment Requirements Matrix (ERM) data supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. This decreased labor intensity is driven by a couple of Best Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample, factors. First, manufacturing activity in the United States is far less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages. There has been extraordinarily rapid automation and capital-deepening in this sector for Research Download Free In Pdf decades.
Globalization has surely contributed to this in the United States, as standard trade theory argues that increased opportunities for trade should (and almost surely did) lead capital-abundant countries like the United States to focus tradable-goods production in capital-abundant industries and shed production in labor-intensive sectors. One, however, should be careful to not assume this move toward capital-intensive production holds generally. The same logic of globalization that pushes U.S. production toward capital-intensive sectors works in reverse for many other countries. Labor-abundant countries (like those in much of the Unique Cover Letter Sample. Cool Cover, global South) should actually increase production in labor-intensive sectors as a result of global integration. Second, the construction sector is a very input-intensive sector. But the problem from the Research Free Dcouments In Pdf, perspective of A Cute Invoice Free Psd, To Make, raw job creation is that many of these inputs come from the very capital-intensive manufacturing sector, and - 5+ Free, this leads to total labor intensity of construction spending that is even a shade below economy-wide averages as well.
This argues that a strategy aimed at maximizing the number of Unique Letter Sample. Cover, jobs generated through infrastructure investments needs to carefully pick sectors that receive direct spending flows. Of course, since construction and manufacturing industries both are notably less labor-intensive than economy-wide averages (and utilities even more so), it may be quite hard to find traditional infrastructure projects that will generate a greater-than-average number of jobs through direct and supplier channels. However, the lower number of Research Download Dcouments In Pdf, jobs generated through direct and supplier channels could well be counterbalanced, at Badge - Spy Birthday Party - Printable, least in part, by the higher wages and capital incomes generated through such spending. Template - 5+ Download Dcouments? This is true essentially by definition: If $1 million in final demand for industry X supports fewer jobs than $1 million in final demand for industry Y , then industry X must either have higher wages or see more of the income generated through final demand flow to capital owners. These higher labor and capital incomes likely will boost the Keynesian re-spending multiplier estimates that result from infrastructure spending. Additionally, we should note here an important distinction, that between the implicit employment multiplier of Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, a given amount of Research Template - 5+ Free, spending versus the implicit employment multiplier of a specific job. Because manufacturing and construction activity in the U.S. economy are capital and intermediate-input intensive, this means that the direct and supplier jobs supported by a given spending flow are lower than if that spending flow went into other industries.
But, the high capital and intermediate input intensity means that each job in manufacturing and construction is associated with the Tree Map Template | Free, support of many more jobs in other sectors. To say it another way, it might cost a bit more to generate a job in - 5+ Download In Pdf, construction and manufacturing, but this job will support more jobs in ancillary sectors than a job created more cheaply in other sectors. Evidence on the employment multipliers of jobs across sectors is presented in Bivens (2003). It is important to note again that the estimates of near-term economic activity and employment in this section are highly context-dependent and will not be valid during periods when there is substantially less economic slack. The next section will look at the types of jobs likely to be created through these scenarios of infrastructure investment, and these estimates of the structural employment composition of infrastructure investments are much less context-dependent and Such A Cute About, should hold for Template Download Free Dcouments investments undertaken over at least the next decade and do not depend on the extent of economic slack. Long-run estimates of the labor market impact of infrastructure investments. Assessing the composition (as opposed to net new level) of employment generated through infrastructure investments takes a much different set of Unique Cool Cover, tools than assessing the near-term impacts on net economic activity and employment. Further, such compositional impacts will hold regardless of the Research Agenda Template Download Free In Pdf, state of the larger macroeconomy. To assess the composition effects of infrastructure investments, we primarily rely on Such Free About To Make Pdf two datasets.
The first is the employment requirements matrix (ERM) generated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as part of its employment projections program. The ERM, based on Research Download extensive input-output relationships between industries and occupations, provides data on direct employment and Secret Agent - Printable Id Badge, employment in supplier industries generated by a given amount of spending on final output of 195 separate industries. So, $1 million spent on the final output of the automobile manufacturing sector generates X number of jobs directly in this industry, but also X jobs in the steel manufacturing industry, Y jobs in the glass manufacturing industry, Z jobs in the accounting services industry, etc. This information on supplier industries is particularly important in assessments of Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, infrastructure investments. Spending on Secret Agent Badge - Spy Birthday - Printable Id Badge the final output of construction and manufacturing (the two most prominent input sectors in infrastructure-investment packages) generates many more supplier jobs than other sectors, so a full accounting of jobs (number and composition) generated through increased activity in them demands analysis of Research Template - 5+ Download Free, supplier industries. The second core dataset used in Party Id Badge, this analysis is the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of roughly 60,000 households that is used to estimate the national unemployment rate (among other things).
Workers surveyed in the CPS are asked their industry of employment. While the industry coding scheme used in the CPS differs from that used by the BLS ERM, we developed a crosswalk between them that allowed a near-perfect match. Dcouments In Pdf? The key advantage to merging the ERM with the CPS is Map Template Pdf Documents Download that the latter (as a household survey) contains rich information on demographics and Research Download Dcouments, labor-force characteristics of a given industry’s workforce. For this study, we have used information on gender, race, union status, educational attainment, and wage levels to assess the composition of employment. To gain sufficiently large sample sizes in Invoice Template! Free Psd, About To Make A Form, each of the 195 industries to make reliable estimates, we pooled four years of CPS data (2008 to 2012). Data on the demographic and labor-force characteristics of each of the Research Template - 5+ In Pdf, 195 industries’ workforces are available from the Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, author upon request. In the language of matrix algebra, the Research Agenda Template - 5+ Free In Pdf, total number of jobs created through a given vector of spending can be represented as follows. Let i be the Letter Sample., 195?1 vector with 195 rows (one for each industry) and Research Agenda Free Dcouments, only one column, which indicates how much new infrastructure spending has been earmarked for each industry.
Obviously, many (most, in fact) of the Best Of Mechanical Maintenance Sample, entries in this vector will be zeroes—as very few industries will receive money directly (retail trade, for example, is not generally a sector that people think of supporting directly in the name of improving the nation’s infrastructure). Let e be the 195?195 ERM. Each of the 195 columns and rows corresponds to a single industry. A given column represents $1 million in final demand. Each of the 195 rows in Research Agenda - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, this column displays how many jobs are supported in every industry by this $1 million in final demand for spending in the industries that directly receive infrastructure investments. Sample Cover Faculty - Shishita-World.com? While the single-largest share of total jobs supported by $1 million in construction spending is always in the directly receiving industry itself (and generally on the diagonal of the matrix), nearly all industries see at least some share of the total jobs supported through infrastructure investments. To estimate this number of jobs supported by infrastructure investment, J , simply perform the Template Dcouments, following matrix operation:
This operation yields a 195?1 vector, with 195 rows again corresponding to each industry in the model. The single column summarizes how many jobs in each industry are supported by the given spending on Secret - Spy Party infrastructure. Perhaps counterintuitively, even though direct spending may occur in a small number of rows (sometimes just one) of our initial 195?1 spending vector, there will be very few zeros in Research Template Download Free In Pdf, the rows of the 195?1 jobs vector output. Almost all kinds of production require a huge array of inputs from nearly every other industry. Most of the jobs created in supplier industries through this amount of Position, construction spending will be very small relative to the jobs directly created in construction, but non-zero job support will be widespread. It is important to note that the Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, number of jobs supported by infrastructure spending output from the jobs model is Such A Cute Invoice Template! About A Form Pdf a measure of gross, not net, job creation. Research Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf? That is, if a given amount of infrastructure spending supports 1 million jobs in total, this does not mean that the economy as a whole will see a net increase in employment of 1 million. Rather, a portion of these 1 million jobs may be pulled from currently employed sectors of the economy.
Again, the macroeconomic multipliers identified in Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, the previous section are far superior in assessing the net job creation impacts of infrastructure spending. That said, the gross jobs numbers identified in our model do convey important information. For one, they give a good relative ranking of the labor intensity of Agenda - 5+ Download, different kinds of Unique Letter The Best Cover, spending and can, by Agenda Template Free In Pdf, themselves, allow judgments to Ballistic Charts, be made about the best place to engage in investment spending if the goal is to increase the Research Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, greatest number of Such Template! Psd, A Form, job opportunities in the economy. And, even more importantly, it is the Agenda Template Download Free, gross number of Ballistic Charts, jobs created that must be combined with the types of jobs created that will allow researchers to judge how relative labor demand for different subpopulations in the labor market will fare. This point will be made plain in the section below where we examine how the number and Research Agenda Template Dcouments, type of jobs created through infrastructure spending result in Tree Free Pdf Documents | Free, changing demands for workers with different levels of educational attainment. Next, we simply multiply the number of jobs created in each industry (either through direct spending or through supplier effects) by the industry demographic shares and then sum these up across industries to get the total number of jobs in each category (both direct and supplier jobs) that are created through a given amount of infrastructure spending. Again, in the language of Research Template - 5+ Free, matrix algebra, this can be expressed as follows. Let d be the 195?22 vector of demographic characteristics by industry (these 22 demographic categories are those listed in Tables 8–10 of this paper). Define f as the 1?22 vector of Such Template! Psd, A Form, jobs supported in Agenda Template - 5+ Free, each demographic category through a package of Map Template - 6+ Free Pdf Documents | Free, infrastructure investment and compute it as: Tables 8, 9, and 10 present the outcomes, showing the total number of jobs, broken down into direct and supplier jobs, generated by scenarios one, two, and three, respectively. Additionally, the Agenda Template - 5+ Free, composition of these jobs by demographic and labor-force characteristics is also presented.
Employment impact by demographic group : Scenario One ($30 billion) Source: Author's analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Employment impact by A Cute Template! About Pdf, demographic group : Scenario Two ($92 billion) Source: Author's analysis of Agenda - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.
Employment impact by demographic group : Scenario Three ($250 billion) Source: Author's analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata and ERM from the Bureau of Cover Sample., Labor Statistics, as described in text. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Outputs from infrastructure investment Scenario One. In the Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, first scenario, the $18 billion annual increase in infrastructure spending from lifting BCA spending caps is sufficient to support roughly 139,000 jobs, with 83,000 direct jobs in industries receiving the Secret Agent - Spy Party - Printable, spending flows and Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments, 56,000 jobs in industries that supply intermediate goods to the final industries.
This job count does not include jobs “induced” by Keynesian effects. There are essentially three methods one could take for estimating the number of induced jobs created. The first would assume that the net employment impacts consistent with the top-down approach to estimating economic activity and Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, jobs created through infrastructure spending used in the previous section are preserved regardless of the labor intensity of jobs created through the direct and supplier channels estimated here. Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf? In this case, one could just take the difference between the overall macroeconomic estimates of employment creation and the numbers supported in direct and supplying industries as the “induced” job creation; this numbers roughly 76,000 jobs supported through Keynesian multiplier effects. This method implicitly assumes that the Invoice Free About To Make, extra labor and capital incomes associated with each job generated through the direct and supplier channels makes up one-for-one for the lower-than-average job counts per $1 million in final demand through infrastructure spending. However, there is very little direct evidence to support an assumption this strong. The second approach would assume that the ratio of jobs generated through the direct and supplier channels to total jobs created is the same as the ratio of economic activity generated through the direct flow of spending and induced effects, i.e., the macroeconomic GDP multiplier.
For the infrastructure investments assessed in Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, this report, this ratio is 1/1.4. Template! Free About A Form Pdf? For this first scenario of infrastructure investments, this would lead to Research Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, an estimate of just under 56,000 induced jobs. Sample Cover For Business Position - Shishita-World.com? This method, however, yields a much-reduced overall number of jobs generated through infrastructure spending, and Agenda Download Dcouments, implicitly assumes that even the jobs induced through infrastructure investment are less labor-intensive per $1 million in Charts, final demand than economy-wide averages. The last approach would be to simply average these two approaches. This would allow the total amount of employment spurred by infrastructure investment to be lowered (correctly) by the fact that the direct and supplier industries are less labor-intensive on average, yet would not carry through the Research Agenda Download Free, strong and not obviously correct assumption that even jobs induced through infrastructure investments are less labor-intensive than the economy-wide average. In the Unique The Best Letter Cool, first scenario, the average of these two approaches is 66,000 induced jobs. Finally, we should note again that long-run estimates of induced jobs are essentially impossible to forecast. During most economic times, the level of overall employment in the U.S. economy is primarily driven by decisions made by the Federal Reserve, which has generally succeeded in setting the overall unemployment rate for the economic generation before the Great Recession struck. To be clear, the Fed’s unemployment target has often been too conservative, and Agenda Dcouments In Pdf, they likely have used monetary policy to keep unemployment rates higher than they needed to be to foster inflation stability (the second prong of the Fed’s “dual mandate”). | Proposalsheet.com? But, they have hit the targets they aimed for in reasonable amounts of time, at least until the Great Recession. Characteristics of direct and supplier jobs.
As the Research Template - 5+, receiving industries are heavily tilted toward construction and manufacturing (which is naturally going to be the case for infrastructure investments), the characteristics of jobs created through this spending skews heavily toward these sectors, which are quite different from the Solutions Maintenance Engineer Sample Resume, rest of the economy. For example, 77 percent of the total jobs created through these investments are held by Research Template Download Free Dcouments, men, including 85.4 percent of the direct jobs. Even the supplier jobs, however, are 64.9 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share of employment of just 50.2 percent. The share of jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is actually quite close to the economy-wide averages: 72.9 percent of Resume, these jobs relative to non-Hispanic whites’ 71.9 percent share of overall employment. The share of non-Hispanic whites in jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is Research Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments In Pdf essentially identical. Non-Hispanic blacks are significantly under-represented in Sample Cover For Business Faculty, jobs generated through this infrastructure spending scenario, with 5.9 percent of jobs, compared with an overall non-Hispanic black employment share of 8.7 percent. Research Download Free Dcouments? Much of Such A Cute Invoice Template! Free About To Make A Form, this is driven by the low share of non-Hispanic blacks in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 4.7 percent. Conversely, Hispanics are over-represented in jobs supported by infrastructure spending, with a share of 15.4 percent, compared with the 12.3 percent share of Hispanics in overall employment.
This over-representation is entirely driven by a relatively high Hispanic share in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 17.6 percent. In regards to age, infrastructure investments in this scenario skew heavily toward the employment of Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old), with this group accounting for 72.6 percent of overall job creation through infrastructure, relative to their 66.9 percent share of overall employment. Older workers (55 and over) are roughly proportionately represented relative to economy-wide averages, so it is younger workers (younger than 25) who are disproportionately under-represented in jobs supported by infrastructure investments. Again, these trends are largely driven by jobs supported through direct spending in Cover For Business Faculty, infrastructure, not jobs supported in supplier industries. Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in Research - 5+ Free In Pdf, this scenario skew toward fewer credentials: 12.7 percent of jobs supported are held by those who do not have high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of overall employment. This is largely driven by the 14.9 percent share of direct jobs holders that lack high school degrees. On the higher end, 23.0 percent of Unique Cover Letter Sample., jobs supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario are filled by Agenda Template - 5+ Free, someone with a bachelor’s degree or more education, compared with 32.6 percent of overall employment. Only 18.5 percent of direct jobs created through infrastructure spending in this scenario include workers with a bachelor’s degree or more education.
However, despite this relative lack of formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario are much less likely to pay low wages than the economy-wide average. Only 9.5 percent of Best Solutions Of Mechanical Engineer Sample, jobs generated through infrastructure investments in this scenario, and only 7.0 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the overall bottom quintile of the wage distribution. Research Agenda? And only 18.0 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure spending in Map Template - 6+ Free Download, this scenario, and only 17.5 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the second-lowest wage quintile. Conversely, 23 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure spending in Research Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, this scenario, and 23.3 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the highest wage quintile. In the second scenario, the $92 billion annual increase in infrastructure spending derived from investing in Badge - Spy Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, building energy efficiency and the smart grid would support nearly 888,000 jobs, with over 599,000 directly in industries receiving the spending flows and 288,000 in industries that supply intermediate goods to the final industries.
Again, this job count does not include jobs induced by Research - 5+ Dcouments, Keynesian effects. Invoice Free Psd, To Make A Form Pdf? Using the three methods described in the section on Scenario One outputs for job creation, one finds that the induced jobs created in Scenario Two number 210,000 jobs, 355,000 jobs, and 282,500 jobs, respectively. Characteristics of Research Download In Pdf, direct and supplier jobs. Overall, the construction sector accounts for an especially significant weight in the overall investment package in this case, and its job characteristics are even more different from the rest of the economy than are jobs in Template! To Make A Form Pdf, the manufacturing sector. This reveals itself perhaps most starkly in the breakdown of jobs allocated between male and female workers: 80.4 percent of the Template - 5+ Free Dcouments, total jobs created through investments in this second scenario are held by men, including 87.8 percent of the Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample, direct jobs. Even the supplier jobs, however, are 65.2 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share in Research Template - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, employment of just 50.2 percent.
The share of jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is actually quite close to the economy-wide averages: 73.4 percent of these jobs, compared with a 71.9 percent share of overall employment. The share of non-Hispanic whites in Tree - 6+ Free Pdf Documents, jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is, just like in the first scenario, essentially identical. Non-Hispanic blacks are even more significantly under-represented in Template - 5+, jobs generated through this infrastructure spending scenario than under the first scenario, with just 5.4 percent of jobs, compared with an overall non-Hispanic black employment share of Letter For Business Faculty, 8.7 percent. Much of this is driven by the low share of non-Hispanic blacks in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 4.4 percent. Conversely, Hispanics are even more over-represented in jobs supported by infrastructure spending in this scenario than in the first, with a share of 16.2 percent, compared with the 12.3 percent share of Hispanics in overall employment. This over-representation is again predominantly driven by a relatively high Hispanic share in direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 17.9 percent. In regards to age, infrastructure investments in this scenario skew even more heavily toward the employment of prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old) than in the first scenario, with this group accounting for 72.6 percent of Template - 5+ Download, overall job creation through infrastructure, relative to their 66.9 percent share in overall employment.
Further, infrastructure investments in this scenario see significant under-representation of both older workers and younger workers (younger than 25). Younger and older workers account for 9.5 and 17.8 percent of jobs, respectively, supported by A Cute Invoice Psd, About A Form, infrastructure investments in this scenario, compared with economy-wide averages of 13.2 and 19.9 percent. Again, these trends are largely driven by jobs supported through direct spending in Research - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, infrastructure, not jobs supported in supplier industries. Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario skew even more heavily toward fewer credentials than in Such Invoice Template! Free Psd, About To Make Pdf, the first scenario: 13.7 percent of jobs supported are held by - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, those who do not have high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of overall employment. This is largely driven by Secret Party - Printable, the 15.5 percent share of job holders supported by direct spending who lack high school degrees. On the higher end, only 19.6 percent of job holders supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 32.6 percent of the overall population. Only 15.2 percent of direct jobs created through infrastructure spending in this scenario include workers with a bachelor’s degree or greater. Again, however, despite this relative lack of In Pdf, formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in this scenario are much less likely to Secret Agent - Spy Birthday Id Badge, pay low wages than the Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, economy-wide average. Only 9.4 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure investments in this scenario, and only 7.1 percent of jobs directly generated, are in the overall bottom quintile of the wage distribution.
In this scenario, however, the large under-representation of jobs in Badge Birthday, the lowest wage quintile is not matched by Research - 5+ Free, over-representation in the highest quintile. Instead, it is the Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance, middle and upper-middle quintiles that see a large over-representation of Agenda Template Dcouments, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario: 24.6 percent and 26.2 percent of jobs generated through this scenario’s infrastructure investments are accounted for by the third and fourth wage quintiles. In both cases this is driven more by Ballistic, wages in direct industries, although jobs supported by supplier industries are also mildly over-represented in these wage quintiles relative to the economy-wide average. In the third scenario, the $250 billion annual increase in infrastructure spending made possible through an Research - 5+ Free In Pdf across-the-board increase would support more than 2.2 million jobs, with nearly 1.5 million directly supported in industries receiving the spending flows and just under 800,000 jobs supported in industries that supply intermediate goods to the final industries. Again, this job count does not include jobs induced by Keynesian effects. Using the three methods described in the section on scenario one, outputs for job creation, one finds that the Charts | Proposalsheet.com, induced jobs created in Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, scenario three number 1.8 million jobs, 900,000 jobs, and 1.4 million jobs, respectively. Characteristics of direct and supplier jobs.
The receiving industries in this scenario are again heavily tilted toward construction and manufacturing (which is naturally going to be the case for infrastructure investments). Largely as a result, 74.1 percent of the total jobs created through investments in Such Psd, About Pdf, this third scenario are held by men, including 79.1 percent of the direct jobs. Even the supplier jobs, however, are 64.5 percent male, compared with an economy-wide average male share in employment of just 50.2 percent. The share of Research Agenda Download Free Dcouments, jobs supported through this scenario of infrastructure investments accounted for by non-Hispanic whites is close to the economy-wide averages: 69.1 percent of these jobs relative to a 71.9 percent share of non-Hispanic whites in Birthday - Printable, overall employment. The share of non-Hispanic whites in jobs supported in direct versus supplier industries is very close.
Non-Hispanic blacks account for Agenda Template Free In Pdf 10.0 percent of jobs in this scenario, compared with an overall non-Hispanic black employment share of Cover Letter Faculty Position, 8.7 percent. Much of Research Download Free Dcouments, this is driven by the relatively high share of non-Hispanic blacks in A Cute Free About To Make, direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 11.2 percent. Hispanics are again slightly over-represented in jobs supported by infrastructure spending in this scenario, with a share of 14.3 percent, compared with the 12.3 percent share of Hispanics in overall employment. This over-representation is Download Free Dcouments again predominantly driven by a relatively high Hispanic share of direct jobs generated through infrastructure spending, 15.1 percent. In regards to age, the The Best Cool, employment of prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old) accounts for 70.4 percent of overall job creation through this infrastructure scenario, relative to their 66.9 percent share of Agenda - 5+, overall employment. Further, infrastructure investments in Agent Badge Birthday Party - Printable Id Badge, this scenario see significant under-representation of younger workers (younger than 25), with this group accounting for 7.8 percent of jobs supported by infrastructure investments, compared with an economy-wide average of 13.2 percent. Older workers are slightly over-represented, accounting for 21.9 percent of jobs supported in this infrastructure investment scenario, compared with an economy-wide average of 19.9 percent. Template - 5+ Download Free? Again, these trends are largely driven by Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample Resume, jobs supported through direct spending in infrastructure, not jobs supported in Research Agenda Template - 5+ In Pdf, supplier industries.
Educationally, jobs supported by infrastructure investments in this scenario skew slightly more heavily toward fewer credentials, with 11.2 percent of Cover Position, jobs supported held by Research Template - 5+ Download, those without high school degrees, compared with 9.4 percent of Sample Cover For Business Faculty Position - Shishita-World.com, overall employment. On the Download Dcouments, higher end, only 21.4 percent of those in jobs supported through infrastructure spending in this scenario have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 32.6 percent of employees overall. Again, however, despite this relative lack of formal educational credentials, the jobs generated through infrastructure spending in | Free, this scenario are much less likely to Research Download Free In Pdf, pay low wages than the economy-wide average. Only 11.2 percent of jobs generated through infrastructure investments in this scenario, and only 10.0 percent of Sample Cover Letter For Business Faculty - Shishita-World.com, jobs directly generated, are in the overall bottom quintile of the Agenda Template Download, wage distribution. Degree and treatment of Secret Birthday, residential construction bias in our results. The construction sector is hugely important in infrastructure investment, accounting for a disproportionate share of such spending relative to its economy-wide importance.
Further, because construction is relatively labor-intensive compared with many other forms of infrastructure spending (if not compared with economy-wide averages), it has large impact on Research Template In Pdf employment estimates spurred by such spending. However, the construction activity undertaken in infrastructure spending projects is overwhelmingly nonresidential construction. Yet neither of the core datasets used in this analysis—the BLS ERM and Cover Letter The Best Sample. Cool Cover, the CPS—disaggregate the overall construction sector into residential versus nonresidential construction. If the demographic and/or labor force characteristics of the residential construction sector are notably different than the rest of the Research Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, construction sector, then the | Proposalsheet.com, estimates above may be biased. More specifically, one could imagine that the residential sector of construction is more Hispanic and less likely to be unionized than the nonresidential sector. Research Template Download Free Dcouments? We have been unable to find any previous attempt to Cover The Best Sample. Cool, assess the extent of this bias. Download In Pdf? Therefore we propose a test to examine how much this issue biases our results. Our approach is to use variation provided by state-level differences in the share of the overall construction workforce that is in the residential sector, as well as state-level differences in Cover Letter The Best, the demographic and labor-force characteristics of the Agenda In Pdf, overall construction workforce, to see if residential-heavy state construction workforces are also disproportionately Latino and/or characterized by high union density. Figure F1 is a scatterplot showing the bivariate relationship between the share of construction employment that is residential and the share of a state’s construction sector that is Latino, averaged across all years in our sample. The full scatterplot shows little relationship (confirmed by a bivariate regression), but if one removes two data points, Texas and Washington, D.C. ( Figure F2 ), a positive relationship between the residential share of construction employment and Tree Map Template Free, share of the construction workforce that is Latino does appear (and is also confirmed by a bivariate regression).
Figures F3 and F4 show similar scatterplots, but this time examining union density as the relevant labor force characteristic. F3 shows, for Research Agenda Template Download Dcouments all states, the relationship between the average unionization rate of Maintenance Engineer Resume, construction in the state and the residential share of construction employment in the state; there is no apparent relationship in the scatterplot. Scatterplot F4 controls for overall union density in each state by looking at the difference between union density in Agenda Template Free In Pdf, construction relative to union density in the state overall. Tree Free Pdf Documents? This still shows little obvious relationship to Template Download Free, the residential share of construction employment in a state. Source: Author’s analysis of Current Population Survey microdata. Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Next, we test to see if the relationships (or lack thereof) in the simple bivariate scatterplots hold up in | Proposalsheet.com, multivariate regressions. We run regressions that examine the correlation between the Latino share of overall construction employment and the share of the construction workforce that is Research Agenda Free Dcouments In Pdf unionized in a given state and the residential share of construction employment. Table 11 shows the results from Tree Map Template Free, multivariate regression testing the relationships in the scatterplots for robustness. It adds a number of controls to examine whether or not the bivariate relationships examined in Figure F continue to hold.
Testing for bias in demographic outcomes of construction investments. * Denotes significance at 5% level. Source: Author's analysis of data from the Agenda Download Dcouments In Pdf, Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW), as described in text. Copy the Best Engineer, code below to embed this chart on your website. Results on Latino share of population. Specifically, the regression in column (1) relates the Latino share of construction employment to the residential share of construction employment and includes state unemployment rates, state and year fixed effects, and a state-specific time trend. The coefficient on the residential share of construction employment is economically significant, but does not pass conventional thresholds of statistical significance (significant only at the 25 percent threshold). Moreover, we should account for the possibility that high shares of residential construction may be associated with overall Latino population in Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, a state, not just construction workers. This check is particularly important if rising Latino population shares actually cause higher rates of residential investment. Including this state Latino population share reduces the size of the coefficient on the residential share of construction employment, as shown in Column (2).
It is certainly possible, of - Spy - Printable, course, that this examination can miss ways in which a larger residential share in overall construction could have a higher share of Latino employment than the nonresidential sector. We control for a state’s overall population that is Latino in our regressions. But if, for example, Latino workers are disproportionately mobile across state lines and actively seek work in Agenda Template - 5+ In Pdf, residential employment, then both the Latino share of state population and the Latino share in residential employment would rise as workers moved to find residential construction jobs. We assessed this by looking at the share of Agent - Spy - Printable, young Latino men in construction as our dependent variable, and Research Agenda Template Dcouments In Pdf, use only the Secret Agent Badge - Spy Party - Printable, overall Latino share in the state’s population in our list of controls. If it is young Latino men searching for residential construction who are more mobile than other Latino groups, then by controlling only for Template Download Dcouments In Pdf overall Latino population in a state, one can still allow this “job chasing” to boost Latino shares in construction employment when residential shares of construction are larger. However, our results essentially mirrored our earlier regressions (shown in Cover Samples Cool Cover, Columns (3) and Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, (4)).
The results are different, however, for testing whether or not high shares of residential employment in Cover The Best Sample., the overall construction sector might bias estimates of unionization rates of nonresidential construction. Column (5) shows the results of a regression that has the Agenda Free Dcouments, state-level unionization rate of the Map Template Pdf Documents, construction sector as the dependent variable. Independent variables include the overall state unionization rate, the state unemployment rate, a state and year fixed effect, and a state-specific time trend. The coefficient on the residential share of construction employment is negative and statistically significant. Further, as shown in column (6), this coefficient remains statistically significant even when state overall unionization rates are included in the regression. Because the effect of residential shares of construction employment on Latino shares of construction employment did not pass standard statistical thresholds for significance, we do not make any allowance for how the types of jobs created by nonresidential construction (i.e., the kind of projects often undertaken during infrastructure investments) may be different than those mechanically estimated by our models. We can still, however, give a sense of how much the coefficients we estimated might matter economically in the chance that failure to find statistical significance was driven by insufficient sample sizes or underpowered tests.
The relative stability of the coefficient on residential construction through various specifications makes us think this is worth doing. The coefficient estimates from Research Agenda, column (2) suggest that each 1 percent increase in the residential share of construction employment leads to roughly a 0.1 percent (.084 in the table) increase in the Latino share of overall construction. Nationally, the residential share of construction employment is Secret Agent - Spy almost exactly 50 percent. If one wanted to know what would happen to the Latino share of construction employment in projects that were 100 percent nonresidential, one would simply reduce the Latino share of employment by 10 percent. Given the Research - 5+ Download, overall national average Latino share in construction employment of 16.2 percent in 2012, this translates into a 1.6 percentage-point reduction in the share of employment generated through infrastructure projects that is Unique Letter Letter Cool Cover accounted for by Latinos, relative to what is generated by our input-output model in this paper.
More relevantly (because it was statistically significant), the coefficient relating the residential share of construction employment to Agenda Template - 5+ Free Dcouments, unionization can also be used to provide an adjustment to the previous estimates in this paper regarding the share of Cover Letter For Business Faculty Position, jobs created through infrastructure investments that are unionized. The coefficient from Column (6) indicates that each 1 percent increase in the residential share of construction employment is associated with a 0.73 percent decrease in the unionization rate. Again, taking the fact that today’s residential/nonresidential employment share is 50/50, a series of infrastructure projects that were entirely nonresidential would boost the unionization rate by 73 percent relative to what would be estimated through our input-output model. Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments? Given the Best Solutions Maintenance Engineer, current unionization rate in construction of 15 percent, this would imply roughly a 10 percentage-point increase in unionization rates relative to our input-output model results. Download Dcouments? This is clearly an economically significant difference. Of course, policymakers who believed higher unionization rates could be economically desirable should not necessarily take much comfort in the fact that residential construction has so much lower union density. Engineer Resume? The degree of - 5+ Dcouments, unionization—both nationwide and by Unique Cover Letter The Best Letter Sample. Cool, sector—is strongly influenced by national policy (see Schmitt and Mitukiewicz 2012 on this). But infrastructure investment is not particularly well-suited to affecting the degree of Research Template - 5+ In Pdf, unionization. Issues regarding the optimal financing of infrastructure investments.
As noted previously, if the goal is to increase economic activity and employment in a slack economy, the Cover For Business Faculty, optimal mode of financing infrastructure investments in the near term clearly is Agenda Template with increased public-sector debt. However, it is generally thought that other forms of government spending that serve as effective economic stimulus when deficit-financed during times of Ballistic Charts, economic slack (transfer payments directed to lower-income households, for example) should be made deficit-neutral if they are to be continued during times of normal economic functioning. In the United States, the clearest example of this rule regarding “pay-fors” can be seen in the construction of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), often known simply as “health reform.” In this case, even though the Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, ACA was legislated during times of extraordinary economic weakness in 2010, the architects of it ensured that the entire cost of the ACA was more than paid for The Best Sample. Cool in the 10-year budget window. The rationale for this imperative to pay for permanent (or at least long-term) increases in government spending is straightforward: During normal economic times, an increase in government borrowing will put upward pressure on long-term interest rates, as government demand for loanable funds competes with private borrowers. Agenda Template - 5+ Free Dcouments? This increase in long-term interest rates can threaten to “crowd out” a range of private investment projects, lowering the potential size of the private capital stock and reducing productivity growth. However, this logic does not apply so forcefully to Of Mechanical Sample Resume, permanent (or long-term) increases in public investments (including infrastructure). Even if these are deficit-financed and do indeed lead to Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments, some crowding out of private capital investments, as long as the marginal public investments are as productive as the marginal private investments that were crowded out, overall productivity growth is unaffected. Unique The Best Cool? Given the falling ratio of public to Agenda Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, private capital stocks in recent decades, it seems quite possible that marginal public investments will have rates of return that are competitive with (if not exceeding) marginal private investments.
Further, if public capital formation is complementary with private capital formation (as is found in much research), then a boost in the level of infrastructure investments might lead to a “crowding in” of private investments. Making infrastructure investments “deficit-neutral” also carries economic costs. This recognition of the deep flaws in the conventional wisdom insisting that all increases in public spending be fully paid for in deficit terms informs such actions as past calls for separate capital and current accounts in the U.S. Secret Badge - Spy? federal budget. Further, it is explicitly acknowledged in the “golden rules of budgeting” released by the Treasury of the United Kingdom in the late 1990s, which stated that government consumption spending should be balanced with revenue over the business cycle, but that borrowing for Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf public investments may be deficit-financed. The recognition that public investments can raise productivity growth even if deficit-financed becomes even more salient when one considers that the alternative to debt financing often carries economic costs of Such A Cute Free About Pdf, its own.
Taxation is the most commonly considered alternative to debt financing, and taxation is Research Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments clearly not “free” in terms of Agent Birthday Id Badge, economic costs. Template Download? Even small deadweight costs of taxation can make revenue-financed public investments a worse deal than deficit financing. Of course, taxation of harmful externalities is clearly good policy in and of itself, regardless of what these taxes finance. While this report has focused on “core” infrastructure investments, it is important to note that often the dividing line between what is a public “investment” versus “consumption” can be blurry, and erring too much on the side of classifying public spending as consumption can lead to Maintenance Resume, suboptimal policy responses. Take the Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, biggest category of public spending: transfers to individuals. In most fiscal accounting, this would be classified as pure consumption spending. Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com? As such, if one focused mechanically on boosting the rate of measured productivity growth, it would seem to make theoretical economic sense to finance increases in public investments (infrastructure) with cutbacks to government transfers. However, a growing body of research has pointed out the substantial economic gains that result from wide swathes of transfer spending (see Bivens 2012b for an extended analysis of the Research Template Free Dcouments In Pdf, rates of Ballistic Charts, return from “non-core” public investments). Spending on nutrition assistance, for example, can be both economically and fiscally beneficial in the long run because it is an investment in children’s healthy physical and mental development.
And even public health care financing can boost living standards growth relative to private financing if the monopsony power of government payment reduces rents in the medical care provision sector and leads to better cost control. So, even besides the normative implications of cutting transfer payments to finance public investment, one should examine very carefully the implicit rate of return even of spending classified as pure transfers before assuming that this method of infrastructure finance is clearly better than either deficit- or revenue-financed spending. So far, the discussion in this section has involved a number of cautions about Research - 5+ Download Free Dcouments financing stepped-up infrastructure investments with instruments (increased revenue or cuts to other government spending, particularly transfers) that may reduce living standards of households. However, it should also be noted that because infrastructure investments have the Such A Cute Invoice Free Psd, About Pdf, potential to provide benefits progressively, even investments that are financed directly by Research Agenda Template Download Free In Pdf, user fees may well be a net plus for such households. In the United States, for example, transportation costs are the second-highest category of household spending behind rents. And the share of household budgets accounted for by transportation costs are much higher for the bottom 90 percent of households than for the top 10 percent (see Walsh et al.
2011). Sample Cover Faculty? Given this, infrastructure investments that can reduce the cost of transportation significantly—say, by providing public transit options or by Research Template In Pdf, repairing highways so that automobiles do not require as frequent repairs—will provide benefits that are progressively distributed. Even from the perspective of aggregate economic efficiency, the optimal mode of financing infrastructure investments is far from clear. Conventional wisdom about government spending (that any long-term increase always needs to be made deficit neutral) is clearly wrong, and even some propositions that are firmly accepted by professional economists (that financing public investments by cutting government transfers will boost prospects for aggregate living standards growth) may well be wrong. But given the extraordinarily large rise in income inequality in recent decades in the United States, we would argue that focusing just on Cover Letter For Business Faculty Position aggregate economic efficiency is far too narrow. The link between aggregate productivity growth and living standards growth for the vast majority has weakened enormously in recent decades. Given the nature of public investments and infrastructure spending, they seem to us a prime opportunity to ensure that some of the benefits of Template Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, economic growth can be enjoyed by a wider swath of Such A Cute Invoice Template! Free About Pdf, American households than have benefited from trends in market income growth in recent decades.
Policymakers should not shy away from analyzing this redistributive effect of infrastructure spending and its optimal financing and making normative judgments about this spending and financing. Climate economics argues strongly for deficit-financing public investments. There is, moreover, one issue regarding infrastructure investments and redistribution that pure positive economics can prove useful in Research Agenda Download, analyzing: the degree of “sacrifice” required of Best Solutions Maintenance Engineer, present generations to begin mitigation of carbon emissions to slow global climate change and bequeath future generations a much-reduced likelihood of climate catastrophes. In much of the economics literature regarding this issue, the degree of current “sacrifice” is assumed to depend upon the discount rate. The larger the discount rate, the less current generations should sacrifice. However, as shown in a series of papers by Rezai, Foley, and Taylor (2009), mitigating carbon emissions actually requires no sacrifice at all from current generations.
Carbon emissions are an unpriced externality, so correcting for Research - 5+ Dcouments this externality only increases the economy’s intertemporal production possibilities frontier (PPF), making any requirement of Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, generational sacrifice unnecessary. Intuitively, what this means is that today’s generation can invest more in Agenda, carbon mitigation while keeping current consumption unchanged simply by investing less in conventional capital stock. The most likely candidate for capital stock investments that are being overinvested in are quite clearly in the private sector. Private capital investments are driven strongly by assessments of profitability and hence relative prices. Agent? But it is exactly these relative prices that are “wrong” because of the Research Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, unpriced externality of carbon emissions. On the other hand, public capital investment decisions are much less directly connected to issues of profitability and relative prices, and so are much less likely to have been overinvested in due to the unpriced externality of GHG emissions.
There are many ways theoretically to Pdf Documents, engineer this expenditure-switching from conventional capital to capital that mitigates carbon emissions, but in practice one way seems obvious: Finance public investments—including infrastructure investments—that mitigate carbon emissions by Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments, increasing budget deficits that will crowd out some conventional capital stock investments. Letter Samples Letter Sample. Cool? It’s important to note that this is not a normative result: The expenditure switch from conventional capital to Agenda Free In Pdf, carbon-mitigating investments is clearly efficient in the positive sense. And, this method of accommodating this expenditure switch is Secret Birthday - Printable Id Badge also efficient; by deficit-financing the Agenda - 5+ Download In Pdf, investments in carbon mitigation and Charts, placing upward pressure on interest rates, the conventional capital investments that will be forgone are those with the lowest rates of return. The impact of infrastructure investments on Template - 5+ Free Dcouments growth and macroeconomic stabilization. Besides boosting the potential for broad-based living standards growth, an acceleration of productivity carries other potential benefits as well. A number of researchers have identified the acceleration of productivity growth in the late 1990s as a key reason why estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) fell over this period.
The NAIRU is an estimate of how low unemployment can go before further boosts to aggregate demand will manifest in higher price growth rather than faster output growth. In the years leading up to the late-1990s boom, estimates of the NAIRU for the United States had risen to well over Charts | Proposalsheet.com 5 percent, and sometimes close to 6 percent, meaning that policymakers (particularly the - 5+ Download, Federal Reserve) were prepared to slow economic growth through contractionary macroeconomic policies if the unemployment rate threatened to go below this threshold. Further, this was not an idle threat. Between 1979 and 1995, the actual unemployment rate exceeded the estimated NAIRU by more than 30 percentage points cumulatively—and not just during official recessions. Yet in the late 1990s, unemployment fell far below these NAIRU estimates and yet inflation did not accelerate. Best Solutions Maintenance? Instead, millions of American workers were employed who would not have been had policymakers put on the brakes when unemployment passed below ex ante estimates of the Research - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, NAIRU, and American wages saw their first across-the-board period of growth in Sample Cover For Business Position - Shishita-World.com, a generation. This episode highlights two things. First, the idea that a well-estimated NAIRU can ever be a good guidepost for policymakers should be reexamined and Research Template - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, likely abandoned. Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com? Besides the U.S. episode between 1979 and 1995, it is quite likely that many large Western European economies also suffered through a decade or more of excess unemployment because the monetary authorities in these countries similarly strove too hard to not allow the overall unemployment rate reach too-conservative NAIRU targets. Second, however important it is to do away with the concept of a well-estimated NAIRU as a reliable ex ante guide to policy, it remains the case that in the near future official estimates of the NAIRU will likely be vitally important to what policymakers do.
If these estimates are too high, then millions of potential work years and hundreds of Research Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, billions of potential wage earnings for Letter Samples Letter Cool low- and moderate-income workers could be sacrificed. One must stress that it is the Agenda - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, estimated value of the Secret Agent - Spy Birthday Party Id Badge, NAIRU that is important, not whether a hard and fast NAIRU actually exists or what its actual (as opposed to Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, estimated ) value is. This is because even if there is no firm NAIRU , as long as policymakers think that there is and aim to keep the unemployment rate from breaching it, then great economic gains can be had by lowering the estimated value of the NAIRU. To put it bluntly, as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve thinks it knows the value of the NAIRU, this makes it extraordinarily unlikely that unemployment will be allowed to Secret - Spy Birthday Id Badge, drift beneath it. Given this, what the U.S.
Federal Reserve estimates the Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments, NAIRU to be becomes extraordinarily important. An acceleration of productivity, particularly when preceded by a period of sluggish wage growth, has the potential to significantly reduce the Secret Agent - Spy Birthday Party, estimated NAIRU. In perfectly flexible labor markets, an acceleration of productivity growth would be accompanied by an equal acceleration of wage demands. Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments? However, as a long line of Such Free About, research, summarized by Ball and Mankiw (2002) has pointed out, workers’ wage aspirations are likely inertial. Research Agenda Template - 5+ In Pdf? So, when hourly wage growth averaged far less than 1 percent per year for the period between 1979 and 1995, this became the accustomed pace of wage growth for these workers. When productivity began accelerating in 1995, however, this opened up a large and growing wedge between wage aspirations and Of Mechanical Resume, productivity growth, providing more room for Research Agenda Template Free Dcouments In Pdf unemployment to fall without sparking wage-push inflation. It should be noted that the conditions for an acceleration of productivity to push down the estimated NAIRU clearly exist today. Sample Cover Letter For Business - Shishita-World.com? Productivity has slowed dramatically in recent years, with average productivity growth between the Research Template Download Free Dcouments, beginning of the Great Recession through the first half of 2013 essentially matching the Best Maintenance, 1979 to 1995 pace that has often been dubbed the “Great Productivity Slowdown.” Further, wage aspirations for American workers are clearly at rock-bottom levels. The bottom 80 percent of American workers saw inflation-adjusted declines in wages in each of 2010, 2011, 2012, and the first half of 2013. Further, the Agenda Download In Pdf, potential for Badge - Spy - Printable Id Badge an ambitious investment effort in infrastructure to boost measured productivity levels is real.
Bivens (2012a) estimated that an effort that boosted infrastructure investments by Research Agenda Template In Pdf, $250 billion per year for an extended period would boost measured productivity growth by roughly 0.3 percent per A Cute Free About To Make Pdf, year—more than half the acceleration seen in Research Agenda Template Free Dcouments, the late 1990s that was associated with the information and communications technology (ICT) investment boom. Given the very large downward adjustments to estimates of the NAIRU during the late 1990s ICT boom, as well as the conditions prevailing in Sample Position - Shishita-World.com, the U.S. economy today (specifically, low rates of productivity growth and Research Agenda Template Download, very low wage aspirations on the part of most American workers), it does not seem unreasonable to think that an ambitious public investment agenda focused on infrastructure spending over the next decade could lower the estimated NAIRU by a percentage point over that decade. This percentage-point decline, if exploited by policymakers who ensure the actual unemployment rate is at least as low as the NAIRU, translates into an additional 1.4 million employed Americans each year and to significantly higher wage growth even for those workers who would have been employed over the decade anyway. This report has analyzed the potential effectiveness of increasing infrastructure investments as a means to alleviate large economic challenges facing the U.S. economy in the short and Such A Cute Invoice Template! Free Psd, Pdf, long run. In the short run, this pressing challenge is the Agenda, failure to make significant progress in spurring a full recovery from the Great Recession. As of the end of 2013, key measures of labor market recovery, such as the employment-to-population ratio of prime-age adults, had recovered just a fifth of the decline experienced during the Great Recession. Further, overwhelming evidence exists that the wedge between actual economic activity and employment levels and Solutions Of Mechanical Sample, levels that would prevail in Research In Pdf, a healthy economy is nearly entirely a function of deficient aggregate demand.
Infrastructure spending, particularly if deficit-financed, is routinely found by macroeconomic modelers to be among the most effective tools in pushing the Psd, About To Make Pdf, economy back toward full employment. Any policy that aims to blunt the impact of infrastructure investment on Template Free federal budget deficits will also blunt its impacts in spurring recovery, but infrastructure investments financed by Map Template - 6+ Free Pdf Documents Download | Free, nearly any means besides cuts to Agenda Template - 5+ Free, transfer spending (i.e., unemployment insurance, safety net programs, and Solutions Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer, social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare) will still provide a substantial boost to economic activity and employment. In the longer term, some of the U.S. economy’s most pressing challenges concern the pace of overall productivity growth and how the benefits of this growth are distributed across households. After an acceleration of productivity growth beginning in 1995, the years before and since the Great Recession have seen a relatively steady decline in the pace of growth. Further, for most of the past three decades, vastly disproportionate shares of overall productivity growth have accrued to the richest households, rather than being shared relatively uniformly across households.
A substantial program of infrastructure investments can help on both fronts. A long literature (some of it quite recent) has identified strong impacts of infrastructure investments on Research Agenda - 5+ Dcouments spurring overall productivity growth. And nearly by definition, the benefits of infrastructure investment are likely to be more broadly shared across households at a range of income levels. Another (related) long-term challenge the U.S. Cover Position - Shishita-World.com? economy faces is ensuring access to high-quality jobs for traditionally disadvantaged segments of the Research Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, labor market: women, minorities, workers without a four-year college degree, and young workers. A key question for policymakers is whether or not infrastructure investments could be expected to provide high-quality jobs for Map Template Pdf Documents Download | Free such groups without any other policy action to ensure that it does . This report has examined three scenarios of infrastructure investments in Template Free In Pdf, the U.S. economy, each with significant near-term impacts in a still-slack economy if financed with debt. The first scenario examines the Secret Agent Badge Birthday - Printable, potential boost to infrastructure spending made possible by cancelling the budget “sequester” that would otherwise automatically reduce spending levels over the next decade. Research - 5+ Free Dcouments? It would generate $30 billion annually in additional infrastructure over the next decade and Unique Cover The Best Letter Cool, create 360,000 jobs at Template - 5+ Dcouments, the end of the first year. The second scenario examines infrastructure investments that combine substantial upgrades to - 6+ Pdf Documents Download | Free, residential and commercial building efficiency along with an upfront investment in constructing a national smart grid. It would generate $92 billion annually over the next decade, creating 1.1 million jobs. The third scenario calls for $250 billion to be spent over the next seven years, creating 3 million new jobs. Making these stepped-up infrastructure investments deficit-neutral reduces their boost to near-term activity and Research Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments, employment, though they are still net boosts to activity and employment under any method of financing except for cutting government transfers.
The estimates of near-term impacts are admittedly imprecise. For example, macroeconomic multipliers used by Tree Map Template Pdf Documents Download, private-sector forecasters and official government agencies are not fine-grained enough to Research Free In Pdf, vary significantly across different types of infrastructure spending. This is Map Template - 6+ Free | Free simply because there is Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf not enough exogenous variation in the data regarding these different types of projects to allow fine-grained differences in Agent Party - Printable Id Badge, economic multipliers to be estimated. This report noted that the labor intensity of infrastructure projects in the United States tends to be lower than economy-wide averages. This is due mostly (directly or indirectly) to the very low labor intensity of U.S. manufacturing. A key driver of this low labor intensity in U.S. manufacturing, however, is specialization driven by globalization.
This specialization, however, will work in reverse for many countries in the global South, so one should be very careful indeed in assuming that what holds in data regarding the labor intensity of U.S. infrastructure spending will also hold for other countries. While there are not enough data to provide precise estimates, a number of careful researchers have suggested that infrastructure maintenance projects (or, an emphasis on “fix it first”) may well be more labor-intensive than new construction. This makes intuitive sense: Maintenance projects seem to be associated with far less capital and input-intensive techniques of production than new builds. It seems that this could well be a useful consideration for designing specific infrastructure investment projects aimed at maximizing employment growth in the near term. In the Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, longer term, even if such investments do not lead to net new jobs created because of Unique Letter Sample. Cover, countervailing macroeconomic influences, they will still significantly change the composition of labor demand in Research Agenda Template Download In Pdf, the U.S. Maintenance Sample Resume? economy. Specifically, the jobs generated through such investments are disproportionately male, disproportionately Latino, disproportionately require less than a four-year college degree, disproportionately middle- and high-wage, and skew away from younger workers. In terms of many employment and Research Free Dcouments, social goals that might plausibly be met through infrastructure spending, this is a mixed bag of results. Charts | Proposalsheet.com? Spurring employment opportunities for non-white workers in the U.S. economy is a laudable goal, and Research Agenda Download Free In Pdf, infrastructure projects do indeed skew toward Hispanic, non-white workers. Sample Letter Faculty Position? However, employment generated through these projects skews away from black workers, and overall infrastructure investments do not generate employment that skews toward non-white workers generally. Similarly, infrastructure investments tend to generate employment that skews very heavily male.
For those concerned generally about securing equal access to Free Dcouments, occupations for women, this could seem like a strike against such investments as employment policy. Finally, on the downside, infrastructure investments generate jobs disproportionately for workers older than 25. For countries experiencing severe youth employment problems, this is a real concern. However, these genuine concerns could argue more strongly for Agent - Spy Birthday Party Id Badge creating complementary policies to Research Agenda - 5+ Free In Pdf, infrastructure investments, rather than arguing simply for not undertaking these investments, the latter of which would, of Ballistic, course, do damage well beyond employment outcomes. For example, regulatory, policy, and legal levers should be used to ensure that jobs in construction and manufacturing are indeed open to workers of Agenda Template - 5+ In Pdf, all genders, races, and ethnicities. And in Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, the United States, the lack of young workers in construction and Research Free Dcouments In Pdf, manufacturing could well argue that the country’s apprenticeship programs are sorely lacking and Unique Cover Letter The Best Sample. Cool Cover, need modernization and Agenda Free Dcouments In Pdf, support. But some of the news about the employment outcomes that would be expected from | Proposalsheet.com, infrastructure investments even without complementary policies can be seen as hopeful. For one, the jobs generated would boost demand for workers without a four-year university degree.
This is a group that in the United States in recent decades has seen the Agenda Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, worst wage outcomes, so anything boosting demand for A Cute Free Psd, About To Make A Form their labor would be a positive. Importantly, this group remains the Research Dcouments In Pdf, large majority of American workers. Further, the jobs generated by infrastructure investment are predominantly middle-wage jobs—and the share of jobs generated in the bottom quintile is very small. About To Make? This is most welcome in an economy that has had extraordinary difficulty in generating decent jobs for most of the Research Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments, labor force in the past decade. Besides their direct impacts on the labor market, an Tree increase in infrastructure investments has been shown by a large and growing research literature to yield large economic returns and carry the potential to boost productivity growth.
Given the sharp deceleration in Research Agenda Template Dcouments, U.S. productivity growth since the beginning of the Great Recession, this effect alone could justify additional infrastructure investments over the next decade. Even more importantly, if this boost in productivity led (as it did in the late 1990s) to a drifting down of policymakers’ estimate of the NAIRU, and if this lower estimated NAIRU led to more expansionary macroeconomic policy, this would be a huge win for employment generation across the board. Further, because traditionally disadvantaged workers (non-white minorities, workers without a four-year college degree, and young workers particularly) benefit the most from any reduction in overall unemployment, infrastructure investments that boost overall productivity carry the potential to also hit many social and Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, employment goals. All in all, if policymakers were determined to ensure that any spending flow directly employed as much labor as possible in the U.S. economy, they could probably find better activities than infrastructure investments. But given the large potential benefits of infrastructure investments stemming from its boost to Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free In Pdf, productivity growth, macroeconomic stabilization, and Letter Samples Sample. Cool, job quality, and given as well that any direct (and supplier) employment generation disadvantage is quite mild, concerns about employment generation should certainly not preclude infrastructure investments in the United States.
Further, developing countries assessing the impacts of Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, infrastructure spending should take heart that much of the labor-intensity disadvantage of infrastructure investment may be particular to the United States (and maybe its advanced-country peers). Josh Bivens joined the Economic Policy Institute in Tree Map Template - 6+ Free, 2002 and is currently the director of research and policy. Research Template In Pdf? His primary areas of research include macroeconomics, social insurance, and globalization. He has authored or co-authored three books (including The State of Working America, 12th Edition ) while working at EPI, edited another, and has written numerous research papers, including for academic journals. Solutions Maintenance Sample Resume? He appears often in media outlets to offer economic commentary and has testified several times before the U.S. Congress. He earned his Ph.D. from The New School for Social Research.
This work was prepared for a project undertaken by the International Labour Organization (ILO) to study the employment impacts of infrastructure spending. Financial support from the ILO is gratefully acknowledged. Appendix: Macroeconomic multipliers. Since the Great Recession of 2008 and the attendant brief resurgence of Research Template Dcouments, fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool, there has been an ongoing debate about the size of fiscal multipliers: how much economic activity (GDP) is spurred by an increase in government spending. The broadest case that public spending can boost economic activity comes directly from the accounting identity for GDP (identified as national output, or Y , in Such Invoice Free Psd, About To Make Pdf, the identity below): (1) Y = Consumption Spending (or, C) + Investment (I) + Government spending (G) + Net exports (X-M) Increasing government spending directly increases gross domestic product, per (1). Further, it is theoretically possible that each dollar of increased government spending (or tax cuts) can lead to more than a dollar of Template Free Dcouments In Pdf, increased economic output. The intuition is simply that if, say, $100 is Best Solutions Engineer Sample spent by the government to employ new street cleaners, these cleaners will spend this income buying, say, food and clothing. This boosts the income of food and Research Template - 5+ Download Free, clothing retailers, who can then go out and Tree - 6+ Download, increase their spending on other items. This iterative process is Agenda Template - 5+ In Pdf often referred to in macroeconomics textbooks as the “multiplier effect” of Cover Letter For Business Position, fiscal support, and it is driven simply by the fact that consumption spending is both a component of and is itself a function of overall income. We can express this by having consumption spending be composed of an Template Free autonomous component ( C0 ) and a component that depends on disposable (that is, after-tax) income ( c (1- t ) Y ). This allows us to rewrite our identity for Unique Cover Letter The Best Letter Cover GDP as:
Rearranging terms gives us the following expression for Y : From here, changes in autonomous expenditures (including G ) will boost GDP by an amount equal to their change multiplied by 1/(1-MPC). Research Agenda - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf? The higher is the MPC, the larger is the multiplier. It is largely differences in the MPC that lead to differences in estimated multipliers for Unique The Best Sample. Cool Cover different sorts of Research Agenda - 5+ Free, fiscal support. Support aimed at low-income households and direct government spending for infrastructure projects, for example, are often thought to have higher multipliers, as less money “leaks” out of aggregate demand because savings rates are either zero (infrastructure spending) or quite low (low-income households tend to spend a much larger share of Unique Cover Letter Samples Cover, any incremental gain to Agenda Template - 5+ Free, income than higher-income households).4. Textbook macroeconomics clearly teaches that the most effective way to Sample Cover For Business Faculty, use discretionary fiscal policy to boost economic activity is to finance this support with increased debt. If increased government spending (which adds to GDP directly through the accounting identity) is instead financed with increased taxes (which subtract from Research Agenda Download Dcouments, GDP by reducing households’ disposable personal income and hence reduce consumption spending), then it is Charts much less effective. Because of Research Template - 5+ Download, this, the size of the A Cute Invoice Free To Make A Form Pdf, “fiscal impulse” stemming from Template - 5+ Dcouments In Pdf, discretionary fiscal stabilizations is often measured simply as the increase in the federal budget deficit engendered by a fiscal policy intervention. However, textbook macroeconomics also clearly teaches that even deficit-financed fiscal policy support may not boost overall GDP in many economic circumstances. The most-cited reason why deficit-financed fiscal support may fail to boost GDP in many circumstances is often referred to in shorthand as “crowding out.” By increasing its borrowing, the Maintenance Engineer Sample Resume, federal government is competing with private-sector borrowers for loanable funds. This increased competition may well raise overall interest rates, and some private-sector borrowers may decide at these higher rates to not engage in the investment or consumption project they would have engaged in at lower rates. Hence, the extra activity spurred by fiscal policy crowds out some degree of private-sector activity by pushing up interest rates.
In the extreme, this crowding-out can be complete, leading to Template Dcouments In Pdf, no increase at all in Ballistic Charts, economic activity stemming from large increases in fiscal support.5. These simple mechanics of crowding out, however, assume that interest rates move sharply enough, and assume as well that economic activity is Research Download responsive enough to these interest rate movements to materially negate the impact of increased fiscal support. However, when overall weakness in the demand for Maintenance Sample Resume loanable funds (say, in the aftermath of the burst housing bubble) has pushed interest rates all the way down to zero lower-bound (or ZLB), it dims the prospects for fiscal support to Research Agenda - 5+ Free In Pdf, completely overwhelm this intense downward private pressure on rates and push interest rates up high enough to begin choking off more privately supported activity than the fiscal support is supporting itself. Yet many arguments expressing skepticism about the efficacy of ARRA leaned clearly on the role of crowding out in rendering it ineffective.6. The importance of the ZLB on interest rates in contemporary debates should be stressed. The primary reason why there was much stronger and more widespread support among macroeconomists for discretionary fiscal support for the economy in Sample Cover Letter For Business Faculty, 2009 than in any other recession in recent memory is entirely explained by the fact that interest rates were at the zero bound. This bound both constrains the ability of the Federal Reserve to fight recessions with its own conventional tools (and hence adds to the desirability of expanding the portfolio of countercyclical policies), and substantially allays the fear that increased fiscal support will lead to Research Template Free Dcouments In Pdf, crowding out. If fundamental economic forces have pushed interest rates down to zero (or as close to zero as they can effectively go, in the case of longer-term rates), that should allay fears that increased government borrowing will lead to upward pressure on these rates so intense that it leads to great withdrawal of Unique Cover Letter Samples The Best Letter Cool, investment spending in the economy. Another argument against the efficacy of discretionary fiscal support concerns the notion of Ricardian equivalence: the notion that an increase in deficits will be recognized by households as a future tax increase, and - 5+ Free In Pdf, hence will spur them to increase their own savings to build up wealth to pay these higher future taxes. Sample Cover For Business Faculty Position? There are a couple of reasons to doubt that the Research, full Ricardian effect of rising private savings sterilizes increased public dissaving. For one, some of the increased future taxes that will pay back today’s deficits will fall on Unique Samples Letter Sample. Cool Cover future generations, so the current generation will indeed see a fall in Download Free, its lifetime tax burden as a result of the public dissaving.
Second, many households (particularly in a downturn associated with financial market distress) may be liquidity-constrained, preferring a marginal dollar of consumer spending over a marginal dollar of savings, but currently unable to Cover Letter - Shishita-World.com, borrow. Free? To the extent that public dissaving relieves this constraint, it can increase current spending. Lastly, if the Cover, fiscal boost from dissaving comes in the form of spending (say, on Research Template Free Dcouments In Pdf infrastructure projects), then there is no reason why private saving should rise to pay off this extra public debt one-for-one in the current year. For example, if the Free Pdf Documents | Free, federal government borrows and Research Agenda - 5+ Download In Pdf, spends $1,000 per person to build highways this year, households will only have to reduce their spending by (the net present value of) $1,000 over the rest of their lives to pay the higher future taxes that result. So, the Ricardian equivalence mechanisms do not mean that it is impossible for any kind of public dissaving to boost overall spending in a given year. Besides the mechanics of crowding out and Ricardian offsets, however, the case against discretionary fiscal policy stabilizations has also rested on issues of timing . Because fiscal policy support is often associated with lags both in deliberation (the inside lag) as well as implementation (the outside lag), many macroeconomists have argued that fiscal policy support may arrive too late, that is, after an economic recovery had already spontaneously begun.
These arguments went so far as to claim that the fiscal support could arrive late enough to push an economy directly into overheating, leading to inflation and Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, interest rate spikes. Because monetary policy tends to Agenda Template - 5+ Download Free, operate with a much-shorter inside lag, recent decades have seen a growing (but not universal) agreement among policymakers and macroeconomists that most recession-fighting responsibilities should be borne by central banks, and Ballistic Charts | Proposalsheet.com, not by Congress and the president.7. Ironically, the case against discretionary fiscal stabilizations seems to have achieved its greatest foothold among policymakers and economists just as this crucial timing argument was clearly losing much of Research - 5+ Free Dcouments, its force. While recessions between 1947 and 1990 were indeed quite short and recoveries tended to follow rapidly after business cycle troughs, recessions since 1981 have taken progressively longer time before economic resources were again fully utilized. Given this record, it seems very hard to give credence to worries that fiscal support legislated during a recessionary period will come so late that it will push an already-recovered economy directly into Maintenance Engineer Sample overheating.
Automatic stabilizers versus discretionary policy. We will end this discussion by Research Agenda Template Download Free Dcouments In Pdf, noting a glaring disconnect between the amount of political controversy surrounding the increase in budget deficits associated with automatic stabilizers and those associated with discretionary fiscal support (say, for example, the ARRA passed in the United States in 2009). From an economic point of view, except for the issues raised by timing lags , deficits are deficits, and if they are desirable or undesirable, one’s analysis should not change based on whether they occur mechanically or through policy changes. Yet ARRA was a much larger political controversy than the much larger increases in deficits associated with the role of automatic stabilizers during the Great Recession. For example, many criticisms of ARRA leveled by economists opposed to Cover Faculty Position - Shishita-World.com, it invoked the problem of crowding out as the reason why it would not work to stabilize economic activity.8. But very few economists (none, in fact, that this author could find) argued in 2008 that the rising budget deficits driven mechanically by the slowing of economic growth should be closed rapidly through policy action. If concerns over crowding out were not thought to apply to these large increases in deficits stemming from automatic stabilizers, then it is far from obvious why they would apply to increases stemming from Agenda Template Dcouments In Pdf, discretionary fiscal measures either. After all, the market for Unique Letter Cool loanable funds does not know which increment of Research Agenda Template Free Dcouments In Pdf, increased federal government demand for borrowing is discretionary (i.e., legislated specifically to fight an ongoing recession) versus which increment is nondiscretionary (i.e., responses in means- and circumstances-tested programs and progressive marginal tax rates) and cannot respond differently to each. - Spy Birthday - Printable Id Badge? Further, the types of public dissaving associated with rising deficits driven by automatic stabilizers (specifically, falling taxes and increased government transfers) are much more likely to Agenda Template - 5+ Download, engender a full Ricardian offset from rising private savings in theoretical models (tax cuts in Cover Letter For Business - Shishita-World.com, particular are fully sterilized in the most rigid Ricardian models). The U.S. federal budget deficit rose by more than 9 percent of GDP between 2007 and 2009, but ARRA could only account for a bit over Agenda - 5+ In Pdf 2 percentage points of this increase; the Secret, large bulk of the increase between those years was the automatic outcome of tax revenues falling as economic activity collapsed, and needs-based safety-net spending rising.
Given this near-completely sanguine acceptance among policymakers and Research Agenda Template In Pdf, applied macroeconomists of the large increases in budget deficits stemming from automatic stabilizers, timing lags associated with discretionary fiscal policy interventions are the only source of worry about the potential effectiveness of ARRA that make much analytical sense. Given the Such A Cute Invoice Free Psd, About To Make Pdf, track record of long recoveries from Research Template - 5+ Dcouments, recessions in the early 1990s and early 2000s, and given that as of December 2011—four years after the Charts, previous business cycle peak and two-and-a-half years after the official end of the recession—employment remained 5.8 million below the prerecession peak, the timing-lags objections to ARRA are not in retrospect particularly compelling.9. Of course, there is a more cynical reason why many policy analysts had no problem at all with the much-larger increases in budget deficits that predated ARRA: they took place under a different presidential administration. In recent years, the Agenda - 5+ Download Free Dcouments, debate about the size of economic multipliers in the U.S. economy centered almost entirely around the impact of ARRA. Contemporaneous estimates of the effect of infrastructure projects undertaken in Such A Cute Psd, About, a slack economy when the monetary authority was highly likely to fully accommodate the increase in federal debt in the United States relied, understandably enough, on models and estimates of prior fiscal policy interventions. So, for example, when the CBO released its quarterly report on the effect of Research Agenda - 5+ Download, ARRA on economic activity and employment, it relied on multipliers estimated in this previous literature. This led to some misunderstanding; several critics of the ARRA and increased public spending during recessions claimed that estimates of ARRA’s effect simply reflected “assumptions” made about Secret - Spy multipliers by the CBO (or other private-sector forecasters who had quite-similar estimates of its impact). This was not the case: Multipliers (upon which the CBO estimates were based) are not simple assumptions, they are the result of estimations, and these “model-based” estimates of ARRA’s impacts were perfectly valid and, as subsequent econometric work has shown (to be taken up later in this section) actually quite good predictors of the effectiveness of ARRA spending in supporting economic activity. Nearly all model-based estimates of ARRA’s effectiveness were unanimous in predicting that it would indeed support economic activity (see Figure G for a representative sampling).
Estimates of ARRA’s boost to U.S. GDP in 2010 Q2 by various sources. The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel. The data underlying the figure. Note: ARRA stands for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Source: Council of Economic Advisers (2011)
Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website. Prospective estimates of multipliers: “Average” multipliers are not an appropriate guide. However, it is clearly true that a good estimation of Research Agenda Template Download Free, macroeconomic multipliers is challenging. By far the most important first step in obtaining estimates of multipliers that are applicable to the effect of Sample Cover - Shishita-World.com, ARRA on the U.S. economy in 2009 and 2010 is to restrict one’s estimates of prior episodes of Download Dcouments In Pdf, fiscal policy interventions to those undertaken in similar economic contexts. Importantly, this means situations during which unemployment rates were high and Agent Badge - Spy, capacity utilization rates were low, as well as situations where interest rates were quite unlikely to Research Agenda Free Dcouments In Pdf, rise in Position, response to Research Download Free Dcouments, increased fiscal support, either because the central bank had moved to lean against the fiscal impulse or because private-sector demand was so high that the increase in marginal borrowing done by the federal government rapidly pushed up interest rates. Many studies did not follow this rule of looking only at fiscal support in these specific conditions. Many studies instead looked at fiscal support undertaken over very long stretches, and unsurprisingly found small average multipliers.
But these small averages could well be the result of very large multipliers during times of high unemployment and low interest rates, combined with low (or even negative) multipliers during times of increased fiscal support when unemployment was already low and interest rates high (see Romer 2011 for Agent Party Id Badge more on this point). In short, average multipliers are not useful for answering the questions about ARRA’s effectiveness; instead, only studies of the effect of Template - 5+ In Pdf, fiscal support on high-unemployment economies near the Tree Map Template Free Pdf Documents | Free, ZLB on interest rates are useful. This obviously rules out some of the more prominent claims about the effectiveness of fiscal policy, such as those of Barro and Agenda - 5+ Free, Redlick (2011). Such Invoice Free A Form? This study looked at increases in deficit-financed government spending undertaken since World War II to Research - 5+ Free, obtain an estimate of multipliers. They use military spending as the measure of government spending. Their empirical results are dominated by Secret Party - Printable, World War II and Korean War periods, when very large increases in military spending were not accompanied by large increases in economic activity. However, by the onset of - 5+, World War II the economy enjoyed more-than-full employment; the unemployment rate by 1941 was 4.7 percent, and Agent - Spy - Printable Id Badge, between 1942 and 1945 unemployment averaged less than 1.5 percent. Further, wage and Research Dcouments In Pdf, price controls were passed (in part) to contain inflation that would have resulted from excess aggregate demand.10 Similarly, during the Korean War (1950–1953), the unemployment rate averaged just 3.3 percent. The simple prescription that multipliers cannot be reliably estimated during times when the economy was close to full employment and when interest rates would rise sharply in response to increased fiscal support is violated in a surprising number of studies invoked in Sample Cover For Business Faculty, the debate over ARRA’s effectiveness in its first two years.
Some notable studies that did not suffer from this problem, however, were Eggertsson (2009); Hall (2009); Ilzetzki, Mendoza, and Vegh (2010); and Woodford (2011). Unsurprisingly, given that they are actually all estimating the central parameter of Research Free In Pdf, interest—the effect of fiscal support in Such Template!, depressed economies near the ZLB on interest rates—all these studies find that the multiplier on particular forms of fiscal support (direct government spending, in particular) is well over 1 and often close to 2. It is also worth noting that the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) did not just use previously estimated values of economic multipliers to predict the Agenda Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, effect of Secret - Spy Birthday - Printable Id Badge, ARRA. Research Agenda - 5+? They also estimated a vector autoregression (VAR) model to predict what GDP would have been with no fiscal support based on its pre-ARRA trajectory (and historical relationships between key variables) and then compared that prediction with its actual (post-ARRA) performance. This VAR approach predicted effects of ARRA that were in line with those predicted by economic multipliers. The estimates in this report on the impact of infrastructure investment rely heavily on the CBO and CEA multiplier estimates. As the next section will note, however, these prospective estimates have been largely vindicated by retrospective, more direct empirical estimates of the effect of the components of ARRA. Retrospective estimates of economic multipliers of the components of ARRA. Now that ARRA has largely run its course, there is Best Solutions Sample now actual data to try to test to Agenda - 5+ Dcouments, see if one can directly estimate its impact on economic activity.
Again, however, this is much harder to do than is often recognized. The problem, in the jargon of Tree Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents Download, econometrics, is how to gain “clean identification” of ARRA’s impact. Take, for example, one obvious (but naive) way to glean its effects: Compare states that have gained more ARRA funding than others to see if economic conditions improved more significantly in those high-ARRA-aid states. The problem with this approach is that much ARRA funding (expanded unemployment insurance and Agenda Download Free In Pdf, food stamps, for Secret Agent - Spy Birthday Party example) was contingent on economic circumstances, with more money mechanically going to states that have a bigger contraction of economic activity. Simply examining correlations between state-level spending and economic activity could well find a negative correlation, but one that is driven by a chain of causality that runs from Download Free In Pdf, depressed economic activity to Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents, more ARRA funds. The chief challenge in many attempts to estimate the impact of ARRA is to precisely find ways around this problem of reverse causality, and this is the problem of “clean identification.” A series of attempts to do this came from John B. Taylor (2011), who used aggregate time series evidence on personal income and consumption to estimate the impact of the tax rebates and some social transfers (particularly the increase in unemployment benefits) contained in ARRA, along with tax rebates that were passed in 2001 and 2008 in the name of providing fiscal support to the economy. Taylor used these results to argue that one could not reject the hypothesis that the tax rebates and transfers had no impact on personal consumption spending. Taylor (2011) runs a time-series regression of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) as the dependent variable. As explanatory variables he includes “stimulus payments” and disposable personal income minus stimulus payments, with controls for Agenda Template - 5+ Download In Pdf oil prices and net worth lagged two quarters. His sample period runs from the first quarter of Best Solutions Maintenance Resume, 2001 to Research Download In Pdf, the first quarter of 2011.
As the Secret Badge Birthday Id Badge, coefficient on stimulus payments does not register as statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level, Taylor takes this as evidence stimulus payments did not work, i.e., that they did not boost consumption spending and hence failed to Research Dcouments, provide support to overall economic activity.11. However, Baker and Rosnick (2012) show that Taylor’s results are largely driven by the period after the fourth quarter of 2008. More specifically, the ARRA tax rebates and Tree Free Pdf Documents Download, transfers took place in the midst of a collapse in overall spending and against the backdrop of a financial crisis. Research Agenda - 5+ Download In Pdf? When they add a dummy variable for the post-2007 period to the same time-series regression run by Taylor (2011), they find that stimulus payments are both statistically and economically significant determinants of consumption spending. A number of papers try to exploit the state-level variation in A Cute Template! Psd, To Make Pdf, ARRA payments to assess ARRA’s economic impact. Again, the key challenge in doing this is to avoid the problem of endogeneity of state receipts—that is, the problem of states with the Template Download Free In Pdf, most depressed economic activity receiving more ARRA funds by design . What is good stabilization policy (focusing more money on more depressed areas) makes for quite difficult evaluation. Wilson (2011) uses instrumental variables to avoid the endogeneity problem. All of them seek to isolate the purely exogenous portion of ARRA fiscal relief allocated to state governments. For example, the increased aid ARRA provided states for Medicaid payments during the recession was allocated based on a formula that made this aid a function of the prerecession Medicaid share paid by a state, a “hold harmless” component of funding that is Invoice Template! Free Psd, About A Form based on the three prior years of state per capita income growth, and the change in the state unemployment rate.
Through controls in his regression (say, by including the change in state unemployment), Wilson is able to isolate that component of increased state aid that is Research Agenda Dcouments In Pdf orthogonal to its economic performance. Invoice Template! About Pdf? Beside the Medicaid formula, Wilson also isolates the exogenous components of Agenda, Departments of Transportation and Education aid to states associated with ARRA. He then regresses the change in a state’s payroll employment on the level of (exogenous) ARRA fiscal relief received. Wilson (2011) finds that the ARRA fiscal relief is Unique Cover Letter Samples Letter Cool Cover positively correlated to state employment growth, and the result is both economically and statistically significantly (as well as robust to different specifications). Research Agenda Template Download Free? He finds that ARRA’s peak impact on Such Invoice Free About To Make employment (he does not use state-level measures of GDP) occurred in the first quarter of 2010, when it was associated with employment levels in that quarter that were roughly 2 to 2.9 million jobs higher than would have been the case absent ARRA’s support. He also finds that each job created or saved through ARRA’s fiscal support “cost” between $44,000 and $123,000 per net new job created. Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) also use state-level variation in ARRA spending flows to estimate its impact. They, like Wilson (2011), also utilize instrumental variables to control for endogeneity of ARRA state spending.
The instruments Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) utilize are mean seniority of the state’s delegation in Template - 5+ Download Free, the U.S. House of Representatives and Pdf Documents Download | Free, the size of the state’s population. The first instrument, the mean seniority of the state’s House delegation, is assumed to be positively correlated with state-level ARRA spending because a more senior delegation is Research Agenda Template Download Dcouments In Pdf thought to be able to steer more resources toward its state. The second instrument, state population, is assumed to be negatively correlated with ARRA spending flows. One rationale for this is that the structure of the Senate (with each state, regardless of size, having the Sample Cover Faculty - Shishita-World.com, same representation) tends to favor small states. Another rationale put forward by Research Template Download In Pdf, Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) is that smaller states have more miles of roads and highways per Sample Letter - Shishita-World.com, capita; because much of ARRA’s direct spending was directed toward highway funds, this results in more funds being directed toward the smaller states. Whatever the precise mechanism of the inverse relationship between state population and per capita ARRA spending, it holds in the data. Further, because both instruments—mean seniority of the House delegation and state population—are clearly driven by historical trends that predate the Great Recession, they are unlikely to be systematically correlated with macroeconomic performance in the state during 2009 and 2010. The Feyrer and Sacerdote (2011) results are not precisely estimated (the overall multiplier for the stimulus package in various specifications runs from 0.5 to Agenda Template Download Dcouments, 2), but across a wide range of Agent Badge - Spy Birthday - Printable Id Badge, specifications the Research Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, results are positive and statistically significantly different from Tree - 6+ Pdf Documents, zero. Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) also use state-level variation in ARRA spending to Research Agenda Template Download Dcouments In Pdf, test ARRA’s impact.
They also surmount the endogeneity of state ARRA spending by utilizing instrumental variables. The instrument they choose is the component of increased federal Medicaid spending directed toward states that is unrelated to changes in economic circumstances. Charts? The formula that determines the Research Agenda Template - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, amount of Template! About To Make Pdf, federal aid directed toward states for Medicaid is driven by a number of factors that are related to Agenda Template Dcouments In Pdf, the state of the economy (for example, the change in beneficiaries over the previous period, the Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample, change in the unemployment rate in the previous period, and the change in average spending per beneficiary). But the formula is Research Template - 5+ Download Free also influenced by the amount of Medicaid spending in the state in the period before the recession began, and this is Of Mechanical Sample Resume not plausibly related to subsequent developments in state economies. The Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) findings provide the largest positive effects of ARRA on employment outcomes.
They find that each $100,000 in Medicaid aid provided through ARRA to the states leads to 3.5 job years created or saved. Given that the Medicaid aid alone in ARRA was nearly $90 billion, this means that this portion of ARRA alone (less than one-eighth the total) could have created more than 3 million job years by itself. Conley and Research Free In Pdf, Dupor (2011) is the Best Of Mechanical Maintenance Engineer Sample, last study to use state-level variation in ARRA spending to assess its impacts. Agenda Template? Like the others, Conley and Dupor (2011) utilize instrumental variables to assess ARRA’s impact. The instruments they choose are the highway funding components in Such Invoice Template! Free Psd, About A Form Pdf, ARRA, the prerecession ratio of a state’s federal taxes and federal receipts, and Agenda Free, the political affiliation of the state’s governor.
Conley and Dupor (2011) find no statistical evidence that ARRA created (or destroyed) private-sector jobs in the aggregate. They instead parse private-sector jobs into three rather unconventional categories: goods-producing; a bundle of service-sector industries that includes health, education, leisure, hospitality, business, and professional services (a bundle they call HELP); and Unique Letter Samples Letter Sample. Cool Cover, all other non-HELP service industries. Not enough justification is given for this unique parsing of service-sector industries. In their benchmark finding, no industry groupings—none of the private industry groups nor the public sector—show any statistically significant relationship to Agenda Template - 5+ Download In Pdf, ARRA spending. In a second specification, which they label “fungibility imposed,” two of the three private-sector groupings (goods-producing industries and HELP services) and Badge - Spy Party, the public sector show no statistically significant relationship to ARRA spending, while employment in Research Dcouments In Pdf, HELP services is shown to be negatively correlated with ARRA spending flows. Further, the Such A Cute Template! Psd, About To Make A Form Pdf, specific regression estimated by Conley and Dupor (2011) makes their results not directly comparable to Agenda - 5+ Free Dcouments In Pdf, the other state-based econometric estimates of the specific impact of ARRA. Instead, their preferred econometric specification uses the difference between state aid received by ARRA and negative state revenue shocks as the key independent variable. This specification seems more appropriate for Free Pdf Documents Download answering a general question as to how state employment is affected by (net) negative revenue shocks, but, given the state-specific shock, it does not then tell us how ARRA aid specifically impacted employment growth. The simplest way to state the Download Free In Pdf, inability to directly compare the Conley and Dupor (2011) studies and those of others in this vein is that the estimated multipliers cannot be compared because the Ballistic, multiplicands are different. This issue of the size of the Research Agenda - 5+ Download, multiplicand is Charts also the key issue in regards to Research Template In Pdf, Cogan and Tree Map Template - 6+ Pdf Documents, Taylor (2012). This study does not exploit cross-state variation in ARRA spending to assess its impacts, but instead tries to account for the drag imposed by state and local government spending cutbacks in blunting the Research Template Dcouments, overall support to the economy provided by A Cute Invoice Template! Free Psd, To Make, the government sector as a whole.
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In fact, relative to Map Template Pdf Documents Download | Free, any plausible counterfactual, state spending must have been higher following the receipt of Recovery Act funds. To argue that the Research - 5+ Free Dcouments, Cogan and Taylor (2012) and Conley and Dupor (2011) papers are not estimating comparable multipliers to other state-based studies is not to say that their findings are of no note to applied macroeconomists and policymakers. The CBO (2012), for example, has actually reduced its estimate of the likely impact of infrastructure spending increases that are managed through grants to state and local governments precisely because of the worry that these governments will reduce their own spending in response to the grants. However, this does not mean that assessments of the all-else-equal impact of infrastructure spending have been reduced because of economic evidence. Rather, it means that policymakers should strive to ensure (perhaps through maintenance of Map Template Pdf Documents, effort requirements for the receipt of federal grants-in-aid) that state and Agenda Download Free Dcouments, local governments do not sterilize any of the stimulative effect of grants by reducing their own spending. The studies of Maintenance Engineer Resume, ARRA’s impacts that exploit state-level variation to estimate employment multipliers of ARRA spending all come to the conclusion that the effects are statistically and economically significant. Research - 5+ In Pdf? The range of estimated multipliers is Charts | Proposalsheet.com fully in line with model-based estimates of ARRA’s impact that are based on past estimation of the effect of fiscal policy, and in fact contain many estimates that are above the high range of these model-based estimates. It is worth noting that this state-based evidence is extraordinarily strong evidence of Research - 5+ Download Dcouments In Pdf, ARRA’s effectiveness, given the many limitations to measuring ARRA’s impact in this way. For one, the state-level regression may miss some of ARRA’s impact because while money may have been directed to a specific state and created economic activity, some of the Ballistic | Proposalsheet.com, employees hired may well live in other states. If, for example, ARRA funds road improvements in Manhattan, many of the employees working on that project will surely come from New Jersey and Connecticut.
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This is an advanced cutting cycle that should not be attempted by beginner bodybuilders. Nearly all athletes can benefit from taking Deca. In most cases, taking the steroid in a small dose can improve strength when you add Testosterone and if you are using another steroid as a base. Most athletes take testosterone in gel form. However, low dose shots are also becoming popular. While stacking Deca is quite easy, you should be careful to maintain hormonal balance. To avoid erectile problems, you should strike a balance between estrogen and testosterone levels.
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