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2017 eLearning Predictions: Updated Hype Curve. Diet Plan? Our 2016 hype curve was a big hit, so we#8217;re doing it again this year. Here is the short, graphical version: Our 2017 eLearning predictions set in terms of Gartner#8217;s hype cycle. And below the fold, the long version, broken into Spreadsheet Wedding Excel the five stages popularized by The Biggest Loser Diet Plan, Gartner: As I wrote last year, #8220;Online learning lags behind other industries in adopting new technologies. This is not because people in online learning are not interested in new technologies; it’s because we’re not a high-revenue industry compared to giant industries like consumer goods.#8221; This is still as true as ever, and it explains why there#8217;s a four-to-eight-year lag between technology trends as a whole and Calendar Template Word, Excel, their application in Magazine eLearning. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: Our developer David Wipperfurth writes, #8220;AI and ML don#8217;t really fit well on the hype curve, because they will have multiple in/out fluxes with different technologies and uses.
AI/ML is essentially too big and Sample Business Free Business Plan vague a category to put on The Biggest Loser Diet Plan | Fitness such a chart. It would be like asking where economics fits on Cover Example - 8+ Samples Pdf the chart.#8221; OK, granted. Writing specifically of intelligent apps, David adds, #8220;This depends on what we#8217;re talking about. Flashcard applications and adaptive testing have been intelligent for The Biggest Loser Diet Plan Magazine years and years. Lots of people probably make claims about Cover For Job - 8+ how #8216;intelligent#8217; their apps are. I#8217;d say adaptivity (outside of The Biggest Diet Magazine tests), procedural generation, and data mining are not widely utilized by Social Media Template - 7+ Word, Excel, Pdf, mainstream pedagogy, so for those cases it might be at technology trigger.#8221; Following David#8217;s lead, we define artificial intelligence and machine learning as computer-generated algorithms, or #8220;procedural generation#8221;: the idea that the computer derives its own rules rather than relying on a human to The Biggest Loser Diet Plan, program its rules. Wedding Spreadsheet Excel Budget? This kind of machine learning is used in The Biggest Loser | Fitness Magazine applications like Google#8217;s speech recognition and translation software.
The eLearning applications of this technology are very much in their infancy; we expect them to Calendar Template Word, Excel, Pdf, be pioneered by firms like Google, IBM (which markets its Watson technology in connection with various LMS platforms it has acquired over the years), Microsoft (which just invested in the lifelong learning space with its purchase of LinkedIn/Lynda), and even Amazon. We were surprised to find Amazon recruiting aggressively at the eLearning Guild#8217;s DevLearn conference. The Biggest Loser 7-Day | Fitness? In short, eLearning applications of AI and Spreadsheet Wedding Planner Excel Budget ML are clearly in the Technology Trigger phase, but expected to continue to develop and The Biggest Loser Plan Magazine mature in Social Template Word, Excel, the next year. IMS Caliper: Caliper is the latest standard from IMS. A newer standard than even xAPI, Caliper is The Biggest Loser Diet | Fitness, somewhat less ambitious than xAPI in the number of use cases considered and APIs specified. This is a possible reason to expect quicker adoption. Sample Template Powerpoint Free Business? Tim Martin of Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine Rustici praised the Sample Business Proposal Template Powerpoint Business, Caliper design process at DevLearn. As Martin is one of the xAPI originators, this could foreshadow future synergies between the two standards and help xAPI get out of the Trough (see below). To understand the difference between the two standards, it#8217;s important to note that IMS and Caliper are driven by higher ed and thus of particular interest to The Biggest 7-Day Diet Plan, the Educause crowd.
IMS#8217;s best known standard, LTI, allows textbook companies to package online course content and ship it with their textbooks, regardless of the implementing university#8217;s LMS. LTI packages vary from SCORM packages in Cover Letter Example - 8+ In Word, that the typical content model follows higher education#8217;s synchronous, weekly, semester-long format rather than the asynchronous, one-time, hour-long format of much corporate and military training. Caliper keeps these use cases and users in The Biggest 7-Day Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine mind while improving on previous IMS standards in the granularity of data captured and in use of an xAPI-like model for interoperability across multiple types of tools and platforms: mobile apps feeding back in to the LMS and Formal Fashions & Jewelry Boutique - Word the like. But the standard was only recently published, and application is still a work in progress. Internet-enabled Physical Simulators: There#8217;s not much more to The Biggest Loser, add from what we said last year, other than that we#8217;ve participated in Formal & Jewelry Brochure a pilot that used xAPI to connect a Laerdal simulator to a learning management system, and we#8217;ve read of another similar pilot.
The use cases are clear, but the technology is not so easy to deal with right now. Standardized connectors need to be built. But because of the pilot activity, we#8217;re moving this trend up-slope a bit. CHEST-Web Courseworks xAPI pilot. EHR-Integrated Performance Improvement: We have seen no real progress on the dream of integrating performance improvement education with electronic health records systems (EHRs). But the hype certainly increased in 2016 thanks to the long-awaited publication of the final rule on quality payment under the Federal Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act (MACRA). MACRA replaces the old procedure-based Medicare payment formula with a complex new formula, called MIPS, that seeks to pay for quality. Part of the MIPS formula awards a bonus to clinicians for participation in Clinical Practice Improvement Activities (CPIAs). CPIAs include MOC-IV and similar efforts to get clinicians to 7-Day Plan | Fitness Magazine, study their own practice, learn, and improve. Payment bonuses for quality and practice improvement represent a renewed regulatory emphasis on performance improvement. At quality conferences like IHI, the MACRA/MIPS hype is strong.
Some solutions providers already claim MIPS compliance (we are skeptical). When providers claim to tie reporting for reimbursement into Cover Letter Example For Job Pdf performance improvement metrics, we expect EHR-integrated performance improvement to reach the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Virtual Reality in eLearning: VR might evoke a bit of The Biggest Loser deja vu in experienced eLearning observers, as we went very far down the simulation/avatar-y path a few years back: around 2006, Second Life was the talk of eLearning (it#8217;s not now). Nonetheless, VR is something qualitatively different from Offering Services, 3D-animated, flat-screen computer games, and has been democratized by Google Cardboard and Loser 7-Day Diet Plan Magazine Samsung#8217;s Gear goggles. Letter Example Samples Pdf? The presence of VR on the upward-sloping part of the curve was demonstrated at this year#8217;s DevLearn conference, where a number of vendors were demonstrating VR-based experiences.
The applications barely need to be elucidated: VR would be great for anything physical, including medical and technical skills. We#8217;ve blogged about an application at Filament Games. As is Plan | Fitness Magazine, often the case, the popular adoption of VR is led by entertainment technology (gaming), and learning is still years behind. Spreadsheet Wedding Planner Excel? VR devices have low penetration in professional settings (have you got one in your office?). While the hype is, naturally, strong, VR is still perceived as a #8220;future thing#8221; by Loser Diet | Fitness Magazine, most in Wedding Spreadsheet Planner Budget eLearning. Web Courseworks instructional designer Jenny Saucerman using HTC Vive.
Subscription Learning: Subscription learning goes by many names, including spaced learning, but where we find it particularly hyped right now is in 7-Day Diet | Fitness the #8220;online continuous assessment#8221; model that has been popularized by the American Board of Anesthesiology. Offering To Business Introduction | Docoments? The basic idea of online continuous assessment is to do away with large, high-stakes certification exams that happen once every few years and Loser 7-Day Plan | Fitness Magazine replace them with a weekly or monthly exam question. Fashions Boutique Brochure? Learners have time to digest the case-based questions and their feedback. They might even apply what they learn from them in their practice. This vision goes hand-in-hand with mobile delivery; learners are increasingly working on these bite-sized chunks of assessment during gaps in 7-Day Diet Plan | Fitness their work days. In our experience, most medical specialty boards are at least investigating mobile online continuous assessment, and many are actively searching for Budget Wedding Planner solutions providers. In a different, more commercial sense, subscription learning has been boosted by the collapse of the price point for on-demand learning. We#8217;re seeing organizations with large libraries of online learning that are interested in selling their content on a subscription model: the #8220;Netflix of The Biggest Loser 7-Day Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine self-paced learning#8221; approach exemplified by OpenSesame. And finally we note that Coursera#8217;s nanodegrees (see MOOCs, below) are now sold on To Business a monthly subscription model.
In short, a lot of 7-Day Plan Magazine people are hanging their hopes on the simple idea of subscribing to learning. Expectations are a bit inflated. Data Visualization in Fashions & Jewelry Brochure - Word eLearning: Nate Silver#8217;s The Signal and Loser 7-Day Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine the Noise was published in 2012, and right about Proposal Powerpoint Free Business that time the market for self-service business intelligence software (Tableau, Qlik, Microsoft Power BI) went bonkers. Loser Plan | Fitness? Self-service BI software has democratized data visualization. Predictably, the Cover Letter Example For Job - 8+ In Word,, trend has slowly disseminated outward from the higher-revenue parts of the enterprise to education, and we are now seeing constant talk about the need to offer administrative and learner-facing graphical dashboards to offer #8220;insights#8221; to designers and learners. This trend is Loser 7-Day Plan | Fitness Magazine, clearest in corporate eLearning, where the big corporate LMSes have colorful pie charts and histograms gratuitously flung all over their interfaces. Even Moodle, which is Business Proposal Plan, less commercial, now has a PowerBI plug-in. As with any technology at the Peak of Inflated Expectations; be wary of the hype: remember that the trick with computers is always garbage-in, garbage-out. But do insist on better visualization capabilities from Loser Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine, your learning software. Gamification: It#8217;s the proliferation of leaderboards that has landed Gamification (temporarily, we hope) in the trough of disillusionment. Many corporate LMSes offer leaderboards.
They#8217;re easy to turn on, and also easy to misuse. The problem is that learners are being ranked on their completion of uninspiring SCORM modules. If learners feel they#8217;re being ranked arbitrarily, or that a training program is trying to spice up low-quality learning with #8220;a little bit of Template Powerpoint Free competition,#8221; then they#8217;re going to find the leaderboard more annoying than motivating. That being said, there#8217;s plenty of hope that gamification will pull through the trough and reach productivity relatively unscathed. Loser 7-Day Diet? The #8220;serious professional trivia#8221; model that we first encountered years ago with SCTE is achievable for most professional associations using available technology. The American College of Chest Physicians runs its CHEST Challenge competition in two phases: a first phase is Fashions Template, administered online as a quiz in their LMS, and the second phase is a live #8220;quiz show#8221; format. The key to getting out The Biggest Diet Plan Magazine, of the Project Resume Example, Trough of Disillusionment is higher-quality, lower-cost content enabled by new tools, such as BranchTrack. xAPI: We are big believers in xAPI.
We want to The Biggest Loser Diet | Fitness, be clear on that. But every technology goes through a phase of disillusionment; that#8217;s the point of the hype curve. In the case of xAPI, the disillusionment is around the continued difficulty in application. xAPI has not reached the #8220;plug and play#8221; productivity of SCORM. Speaking here as a member of the eLearning community, this is probably our own failure to learn and adapt as quickly as we might like (hey, we#8217;ve got SCORM packages to finish). But it#8217;s also pretty clear that the Services Introduction Letter Ojazlink, xAPI standard, in Loser 7-Day Diet Plan Magazine its flexibility and granularity, is Social Media Calendar Template Free Word, Excel, Pdf, ambitious, and Diet Plan | Fitness Magazine it takes some time for ambitious standards like these to be absorbed into Example - 8+ Samples everyday practice.
For now, it might seem as if xAPI is stuck in The Biggest Plan | Fitness Magazine a #8220;perpetual piloting#8221; phase. But the pilots are proliferating we#8217;ve seen many more pilots in the last year than in Sample Business Proposal Free the rest of the short history of xAPI put together. And that#8217;s a good sign: as more practitioners participate in pilots, understanding spreads, and xAPI moves upward toward the Slope of Enlightenment. MOOCs: We had MOOCs in the Trough of Disillusionment last year, and indeed the hype has died down. Business models at the big MOOC platforms have shifted; both Coursera and Udacity are now pushing #8220;nanodegrees#8221; with a self-paced format. And their MOOCs are not entirely open anymore. Many now cost money. Meanwhile, corporate MOOCs seem to have, essentially, fizzled. The #8220;enlightenment#8221; we#8217;re experiencing is best expressed by a recent quote from Udacity founder Sebastian Thrun, who told the New York Times, “If I look back at the MOOC hype, what actually happened was that people equated a cheaper delivery method with the replacement of the entire educational system. A cheaper technology is not the same as a business revolution.#8221; We agree: MOOCs should be seen as a valuable part of an educational system that must serve an incredibly diverse range of learners and The Biggest Loser Plan Magazine purposes.
Educational institutions of all stripes shouldn#8217;t see them as a replacement for anything, but a tool that meets certain needs. Business Proposal Template Powerpoint Free Plan? Mobile Learning: Celebrate, for we#8217;ve finally reached the point where we can look back at the train-wreck that was the early days of mobile learning and laugh. There was the The Biggest Loser 7-Day Plan | Fitness Magazine, wrenching transition away from Flash, the Spreadsheet Excel Budget, over-hyped hybrid apps, and the proliferation of unusable JQuery Mobile-based responsive websites (OK, some are still out there). We#8217;re past that now, or a good many of us are, and we#8217;re finally to Loser Plan | Fitness Magazine, the point where we can intelligently and productively use the various options available to us. That pleasing, placid feeling of understanding and usability#8230;why, we must be on the Plateau of Productivity. Courtesy of The American Board of Social Template Excel, Pdf Anesthesiology, MOCA 2.0. For more information on xAPI and Diet | Fitness Magazine the CHEST-Web Courseworks xAPI pilot, download our white paper. If you are interested in performance improvement, learn more about our Quality Improvement Education program (QIE). Web Courseworks#8217; received a Brandon Hall technology award for our QIE program in January.
Adaptive learning system, virtual assistant, expert system, and eLearning management intelligence(one early case is building alerts from predictive learning analytics) will be major applications of AI/MachineLearning. Observing the capital poured into it, I guess AI/ML will be advancing faster than xAPI. The issue of xAPI isn#8217;t about Example technology itself, it#8217;s about The Biggest Loser Diet | Fitness Magazine people silos that leads to data silos. I would love to see a table that shows all the new learning technology with these columns: What it is and what can it do. Major benefits to learners. An implementation difficulty rating. Social Word,? Cost of implementation. Learning curve for end users.
Skill sets needed as a developer/administrator. I think I#8217;m going to make one. I need to clearly see the cost benefit ratio before jumping on any bandwagons. Association Learning Technologies eLearning Consultant, CEO of Web Courseworks. Dr. Jon Aleckson is an educational leader and consultant in association learning technologies and eLearning. He works with an extensive list of association clients on LMS implementation and development, platform alignment and The Biggest integration, and online curriculum development, giving him a holistic view of Social Media Calendar - 7+ Word, Excel, Pdf business models, operational practices, and educational approaches in association eLearning. Dr. Hicken has worked in Diet | Fitness Magazine eLearning since 2006. He has been the Cover Letter In Word, Pdf, lead instructional designer and, later, product innovation specialist on a number of projects, including the World Anti-Doping Agency’s PlayTrue Challenge game, which won a silver award in Loser 7-Day Magazine the Games for Good/Non-Profit category at the Serious Games Conference.
Dr. Hicken received his Ph.D. in ethnomusicology in 2009, and stays active in the field. Jenny Saucerman has worked in eLearning since 2011 with a focus on educational games and learning analytics. She earned her master's degree in educational psychology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in Project - Template 2015. She is currently an instructional designer for Web Courseworks.
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